Will AI Ever Be Able to Predict Disasters and Save Lives?

The massive, catastrophic flash flood that occurred in Spain on October 29 was so horrific and devastating that it left the world aghast at its destructive nature.

Over 200 people died, dozens went missing, and whole towns were covered in mud and debris, especially in the eastern Valencia region.

In the United States alone, in 2023, 25 weather or climate disasters [caused at least $1 billion in losses and the [deaths](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/#:~:text=In%202023%20(as%20of%20December,and%201%20winter%20storm%20event) of 482 people, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

According to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO), “Severe storms, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires kill hundreds of people and cause billions of dollars in damage in the U.S. each year.”

In fact, [according](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/#:~:text=In%202023%20(as%20of%20December,and%201%20winter%20storm%20event) to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “the U.S. has sustained 400 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2024). The total cost of these 400 events exceeds $2.785 trillion.”

India suffers from a similar problem.

The frequency of flooding is getting worse due to the rapid growth of cities and climate change.

Numerous other countries, especially in Africa, have seen similar catastrophes caused by unprecedented flooding.

Widespread flooding in West and Central Africa, according to the World Health Organization, “has affected more than 4 million people, caused extensive damage to homes, schools, health facilities and swaths of farmland, heightening the risk of water-borne diseases, food insecurity and malnutrition.”

Human-induced climate change “is likely to have significantly worsened the situation”, according to scientists at the Red Cross Climate Centre.

Many experts now agree that with the advancement of artificial intelligence, this technology can and should play a bigger role in predicting those events and saving lives.

And Northeastern University faculty experts predict it will.

In an interview last year, Auroop R. Ganguly, professor of civil and environmental engineering and director of AI4CaS (AI for Climate and Sustainability) said, “In the next 12 months, we are going to see more and more efforts where data-driven systems and artificial intelligence come together.”

One example is the Earth-2 platform, which is able to simulate global weather patterns in great detail.

Taiwan is already using a similar tool to precisely predict the path and impact of typhoons.

AI4CaS serves as a focus area within Northeastern University’s Institute for Experiential AI.

The GAO found that AI weather forecasting models can help predict these catastrophic weather events.

Machine learning specifically “can help improve model accuracy, increase warning times, and reduce uncertainty” and while some of these types of models are currently in use, “there are challenges to developing and adopting them more widely.”

Google recently released an AI model that it claims can generate accurate weather forecasts at scale — while being cheaper than conventional physics-based forecasting.

The "Scalable Ensemble Envelope Diffusion Sampler" (SEEDS) model is designed similarly to popular large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT.

SEEDS generates many ensembles — or multiple weather scenarios — much quicker and cheaper than traditional predicting models can. The team described its findings in a paper published March 29 in the journal Science Advances.

In yet another effort to get ahead of life-threatening weather patterns, the University of Illinois and IBM have joined forces to work together on an AI model capable of anticipating heavy rainfall and flash floods in the Appalachian Mountains.

Such models can triple or quadruple the warning time currently available to meteorologists and scientists.

In August, NVIDIA Research, announced that it has developed a new AI model for predicting extreme weather events, called StormCast, part of a larger effort by NVIDIA to improve climate research through AI.

These new AI models are financially beneficial since they can process information far quicker than older models.

As extreme weather events, like flooding, become more frequent and intense, it is becoming increasingly important to be able to predict, understand, and prepare for these events.

AI models will assist in predicting weather catastrophes and will help reduce not just major damage, but will also save thousands of lives.

Such AI technologies will help scientists make faster and more accurate predictions, which can ultimately save lives and reduce the cost of disasters.

In September, Smithsonian Magazine interviewed computer scientist and meteorologist Amy McGovern. She said that while AI will not replace human meteorologists in the near future, “We’re developing things to give them more options so that they can focus on turning the forecasts into actionable information for people to make better decisions.”

“Humans are a lot better at that than AI is right now,” she said.