Why Nominal Rigidity is Central to Macroeconomic Stability
by Keynesian TechnologyDecember 8th, 2024
Too Long; Didn't Read
This paper presents a reimagined New Keynesian model, emphasizing the role of nominal rigidity in macroeconomics and offering clear insights into policy. It challenges previous models and reinterprets the Phillips curve, setting the stage for future economic theory and practice.
Author:
(1) David Staines.
Table of Links
4 Calvo Framework and 4.1 Household’s Problem
4.3 Household Equilibrium Conditions
4.5 Nominal Equilibrium Conditions
4.6 Real Equilibrium Conditions and 4.7 Shocks
5.2 Persistence and Policy Puzzles
6 Stochastic Equilibrium and 6.1 Ergodic Theory and Random Dynamical Systems
7 General Linearized Phillips Curve
8 Existence Results and 8.1 Main Results
9.2 Algebraic Aspects (I) Singularities and Covers
9.3 Algebraic Aspects (II) Homology
9.4 Algebraic Aspects (III) Schemes
9.5 Wider Economic Interpretations
10 Econometric and Theoretical Implications and 10.1 Identification and Trade-offs
10.4 Microeconomic Interpretation
Appendices
A Proof of Theorem 2 and A.1 Proof of Part (i)
B Proofs from Section 4 and B.1 Individual Product Demand (4.2)
B.2 Flexible Price Equilibrium and ZINSS (4.4)
B.4 Cost Minimization (4.6) and (10.4)
C Proofs from Section 5, and C.1 Puzzles, Policy and Persistence
D Stochastic Equilibrium and D.1 Non-Stochastic Equilibrium
D.2 Profits and Long-Run Growth
E Slopes and Eigenvalues and E.1 Slope Coefficients
E.4 Rouche’s Theorem Conditions
F Abstract Algebra and F.1 Homology Groups
F.4 Marginal Costs and Inflation
G Further Keynesian Models and G.1 Taylor Pricing
G.3 Unconventional Policy Settings
H Empirical Robustness and H.1 Parameter Selection
I Additional Evidence and I.1 Other Structural Parameters
I.3 Trend Inflation Volatility
12 Conclusions
I have set out a New Keynesian model that should prove useful for policy. Its backbone, the Phillips Curve, compares favourably along all dimensions in preliminary data analysis; with a jump in predictive power guaranteed under the null it is the true model. My analysis shows nominal rigidity is central to understanding macroeconomic dynamics; whatever the inflation rate, no matter how small the shocks are. It hints at a surprising yet intuitive rationale for the inertial policies, ubiquitous at successful central banks.
Natural next steps include a wage Phillips curve and optimal policy problems. I will theorize further about the error terms and there will be a renewed commitment to structural econometrics. No doubt alterations and extensions will arise but I am confident the salient features of the solution here will survive.
I have constructed a rigorous solution method for a class of previously intractable problems. Yet, I have only scratched the surface of what is conceivable with this mathematical framework. The techniques I have developed will have applications, elsewhere in economics and beyond.
Numerous theories of real and nominal frictions have been set out with less intuition and empirical support than the one here. All were implicitly based on perceived failures of a faulty New Keynesian model. When solved correctly, a benchmark sticky price model implies clear and credible trade-offs. Together my results decisively answer the broadly fair criticisms of previous formulations, as levelled by Chari et al. [2009].
New Keynesian economics now has striking results and firm foundations. In this paper, I have profoundly reinterpreted the Lucas critique and our understanding of the Phillips curve. By disproving observational equivalence between Keynesian and Classical models, I have surely ensured that: "We are all Keynesians now."[104]
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104The phrase was supposedly uttered at different times, possibly with different intentions, by Milton Friedman and Richard Nixon. The respective attributions are here: https://web.archive.org/web/20081023074323 /http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,842353-3,00.html https://www.nytimes.com/1971/01/07/archives/nixon-reportedly-says-he-is-now-akeynesian.html It should not be surprising that a rigorous solutions ends up confirming policy consensus and economic intuition.
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