Welcome back to Alex’s on-chain analysis. Recently we have witnessed the rise of Fan Tokens related to football teams on Binance. One of the most outstanding examples is Qatar 2022 Token, named after the football team in the upcoming World Cup, scheduled to be held in Qatar at the end of November this year. Especially on Pancakeswap, we can see the increasing development of this token with massive gains in such a short time. So is this project creditable or just another scam? What really drives the value of this token? Let's explore the answer with Alex! As usual, I will utilize TokFlow AI to analyze the token price movement along with the money flow of the actual major players in the networks. In the first place, let me guide you through the Trending Soon dashboard on the TokFlow homepage which enables you to partially predict the market trend by finding the most popular cryptocurrencies that people are searching for. It is obvious that Qatar 2022 Token (FWC) is currently on rank #4 in the Top Trending Gainers, which means that it is likely to increase in price within 1 week. However, one of its major drawbacks is not being listed in the top 10 tokens in the Trending Soon section. Probably, in the near future, the FWC price might not make a strong upward move. Nevertheless, the team’s performance in the upcoming World Cup can be one of the deciding factors that greatly influence the token value. As you can see from the Overview dashboard above, the current live price of Qatar 2022 Token at the time of writing is around 0.000000000111, which is down more than 6% in the last 24 hours. More importantly, according to the TokScore, the Qatar token only gains an “Average” score of 38 based on a 100-point scale, which is quite close to the “Poor” level. Based on the metrics compiled by TokFlow Analyst, we can clearly see the weakness of the Qatar 2022 Token with little likelihood of an increase in price in the near future. In the following part, I’ll be taking an in-depth look at the behaviors of Smart Money wallet to see its role in influencing the price of Qatar 2022 Token: It is evident that Smart Money has played a large part in determining the price of FWC since the token was first launched in February 2022. In just one month after its release, the FWC price suddenly skyrocketed from 0.0000000000080 (10 Feb 2022) to an ATH of 0.0000000042361 (10 Mar 2022). During March, we also notice an abnormally large buying and selling volume of almost 600K from Smart Money wallets. Beyond doubt, Smart Money mostly participated in the pricing process as well as manipulating the market by pumping and dumping the token at the same time. In Q2 and Q3, the FWC price kept moving sideways until Smart Money stockpiled a small number of tokens up to 18K on 17 Sep 2022, which pushed the price to 0.00000000249 and then quickly sold them out. As such, the value of Qatar 2022 Token was greatly driven by Smart Money’s pump-and-dump scheme. Looking at the Smart Money Asset Percentage Chart, we can see that this wallet is now holding almost 83% of Qatar tokens with a total asset of over $578K, a modest number. It is interesting to note that the Total Value Out ($6M) is larger than the Total Value In ($5M), which shows that MM had dumped such a huge volume of tokens into the market without leaving anything in the wallet. Tracking the data from Profit/Loss Average, I spot that most of the major players in the networks have enjoyed such a high profit from investing in Qatar 2022 Token in the last 1 month, except for a slight loss from Smart Money and Retail Investors wallet cluster between May and August 2022. In particular, Devs and Funds wallet was 100% profitable without any loss, which shows that they are likely to dump the token if there is a spike in price. Now, let’s pay a close attention to the Holder Tracking dashboard: While Smart Money is only holding 9.84% of FWC, the other key players including Devs & Funds, Whales-Sharks, and Retail Investors appear to be the biggest holders with the current asset being over $1M. This suggests that the community is taking a keen interest in the Qatar 2022 token as they gain a high profit when investing in this token. With these factors in mind, it can be deduced that after the strong dumping force of MM, the project is now based on community to develop. There are chances that the leading players apart from Smart Money will wait for a price adjustment in the near future to dump the tokens. Obviously, this is the hottest time for football token projects to bloom and the value of their fan token cryptos will rise in the run-up to the event. However, it’s highly recommended that you should do your due diligence before making important investment decisions. Of course, in the end, the decision is still yours. Good luck and see you in the next article!
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