What Is the Technology Supercycle?

At SXSW this year, Amy Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute, once again delivered a session as a lighthouse in the "technology supercycle" reshaping our world. Webb, a renowned author and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, shared key insights from the 17th Annual Technology Trends Report in an enlightening one-hour session. Despite having to catch a rerun due to simultaneous sessions, here's what I gathered:

The Technology Supercycle

We're smack in the middle of a "technology supercycle era," driven by the convergence of three general-purpose technologies:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI)

• Biotechnology

• Connected Device/Sensor Ecosystem

  
  

This supercycle has the potential to reshape our economy and society in ways unseen since the Industrial Revolution and the dawn of the internet age.

AI Trends

Despite the hype and popularity of AI, there are still unresolved and often misunderstood big issues, including bias, accountability, and the risk of open-source models being used for nefarious purposes.

Generative AI is evolving rapidly, moving from text-based models to a "concept to concrete" paradigm that can embody broad ideas.

Smart Device Ecosystem: A New Black Mirror Episode

There's an explosion of interest and development in smart device and sensor technology. These tech products, which include "face computers" (VR/AR headsets) and wearables that can read human intention, feed more real-world data into AI through "large action models." This raises privacy and social scoring concerns.

Biotechnology Breakthroughs

Advances in synthetic biology and biological computers made from human brain cells (organoid intelligence) could move us beyond silicon-based computing. This could pave the way for faster, more efficient, and more powerful computing systems that require less energy. This aligns with the theory of exascale computers mentioned in the MIT Technology Trends Report.

Societal Impacts and Recommendations

The concentration of power among a group of tech leaders following a techno-utopian vision is concerning. Governments should establish new departments and organizations to plan for the disruptive effects of the technology supercycle on industries and jobs.

Companies must start mapping out evolving value networks to anticipate disruptions and create future value.

To Succeed Individually in the Technology Supercycle, Webb Suggests:

• Strive to be informed about trends shaping our era and their potential impacts on your business.
• Begin to adopt strategic foresight and long-term planning to anticipate and adapt to disruptive changes.
• Engage in discussions on shaping the technology supercycle towards a more equitable future for all, and take an active role.

This session with Amy Webb offered a comprehensive roadmap for navigating the currents and undercurrents of the technology supercycle, emphasizing the importance of proactive engagement and strategic planning to thrive in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.