The Founder's Choice: Stupid & Unlucky or Lucky & Smart?

12 years ago, I ran into this smart founder I had once mentored. They are on their way to make a big mistake. I tell him don't. He asks why?

I say because I lost my shirt doing this, you will too.

He says, just because you were stupid and unlucky doesn't mean we will be too.

Ouch! But fair enough.

Stupid and unlucky?

Given a choice betting on smart and lucky vs. stupid and unlucky, which one should you bet on as a founder?

Bet on being unlucky.

The odds are higher that your first path, your first choice is off. That you will have to start all over again. That things will not work out. That you will leave a deep hole in the ground.

Be prepared for it, and you won't be blindsided. If luck does smile at you, treat it as a bonus.

I know it doesn't make sense. Optimism is our lifeblood as founders.

Be optimistic. But don't ever take luck for granted.

Lows work out, but it gets hairy and scary before they do. If you are not ready for that part of the ride, you are not ready to ride.

It’s a fine mix, a delicate balance. Optimism and paranoia. Side by side. Schizophrenic, to put it mildly.

Like that joke I love.

Founder to an old man on the mountain.

"Please tell me about my future, guru ji."

"Well, your first two years are going to be very hard"

"And then?"

"And then you will get used to it"

Every now and then, you will feel both lucky and smart. But when that happens, remember to give luck equal credit.

And then there are the exceptions. The truly talented and gifted. Like Wayde Van Niekerk. The man who took our collective breath away in 43 seconds one late evening in Rio.

When Fortuna finally smiles her deceiving smile, you need a stack of long hours, prep, training, grit, and talent on your side to make it work.

Ever thought about breaking the 400m world record starting lane 8?

A lane 8 assignment in a hyper-competitive event like the Olympics 2016 400m final would kill it for most athletes.

It would certainly kill it for me in a local master's event, let alone the Olympics. A cruel joke of fate, a stroke of utmost bad luck if someone even makes it that far.

But luck was taking no chances with Van Niekerk in the 400m Olympics final on August 22, 2016. The field was stacked against him. It was one of the deepest 400m fields the world had ever seen.

Watch the video .

And yet Wayde Van Niekerk turned it into a race to remember, a WR and an Olympic Gold medal. All from lane 8.

So yes, there are rare exceptions that will even leave luck feeling empty-handed when it comes to a final showdown.

But that is not going to be you and me. Don't ever count on that.

Smile back if destiny smiles at you.

Put your head down and work through it if she doesn't.

https://apnews.com/article/2020-tokyo-olympics-track-and-field-sports-1ac25198e1e4afc678792345ab06eb0f.

Also published here.