Summary of every occasion tethers (USDT) deviated considerably from the US dollar since 2017. Also valuable as a timeline of every major bitcoin market event. Summary USDT generally trades at a discount to USD when traders perceive Tether/Bitfinex are having issues potentially affecting their solvency and/or the USDT liquidity (i.e. banking issues, see ). During tether driven panics, bitcoin prices twice crashed, and twice spiked. here USDT generally trades at a premium to USD when bitcoin prices are crashing due to factors not related to tether (or during times of peak bitcoin euphoria, as shown by what transpired during December 2017). Bitfinex is a fiat exchange. Given its position as tethers’ gateway, usually when USDT trades at a premium over USD, Bitfinex trades as a fiat-tether hybrid exchange (e.g. BTCUSD Coinbase > BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSDT Binance). In parallel, when USDT trades at a discount over USD, Bitfinex trades as a tether exchange (e.g. BTCUSD Coinbase < BTCUSD Bitfinex = BTCUSDT Binance). Timeline (Note: “equal to” symbols indicate “approximately equal to”) #1: Apr/14/17 to May/24/17: Bitfinex banking issues USDT < USD Max spread -11%. BTCUSD Bitfinex = BTCUSDT Poloniex BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSD Coinbase become public on Apr/6/2017 and pick steam progressively in the following ten days. Problems with international wires to Bitfinex’s start on Apr/18/17. Bitfinex communicates actively regarding the matter (see , , and ) Bitfinex-Wells Fargo problems Taiwanese bank here here here This series of events coincides precisely with a bitcoin bull run. BTCUSD popped 6% on Apr/6, then went on an uninterrupted 126% upwards move from Apr/14 to precisely May/25, when it begins a three day crash. Bullish events behind such run were as a legal payment option (Apr/1), and talks about (Apr/10). Japan recognizing bitcoin Russia looking to recognize and regulate bitcoin This is for some a controversial time in the history of Tether, given how tethers in circulation increased sharply even while Tether was having banking issues, and how precisely the bull run coincides with Tether’s banking problems. However, having banking problems is not the same as being Furthermore, even though one can theorize tethers were printed without dollar backing to buy bitcoin and pump bitcoin ( ), one can equally theorize USDT issuance responded to increased demand driven by the bitcoin bull run, and in the absence of banking problems, USDT issuance would have been even greater, while USDT would have traded at a premium rather than at a discount. unbanked. as many do #2: May/25/17 to Jun/8/17: bitcoin crash USDT > USD Max spread +7% BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSDT Poloniex (May/25-May/28) BTCUSD Bitfinex < BTCUSD Coinbase Bitcoin prices crash on May/25, for a 33% three day correction, then the upwards move continues raging on. #3: Jun/13/17 to Jun/16/17: bitcoin crash USDT > USD Max spread +7% BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSDT Bittrex (not so Poloniex) BTCUSD Bitfinex < BTCUSD Coinbase Bitcoin prices crash on 32% between Jun/12 and Jun/15. Bitmain announced the on Jun/14. bitcoin cash hard fork #4: Sep/1/17 to Sep/18/17: China ban triggers bitcoin crash USDT > USD Max spread +7% BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSDT Poloniex BTCUSD Bitfinex < BTCUSD Coinbase China announces ICO ban on Sep/4 and exchange ban on Sep/14. Bitcoin prices crashed. Chinese funds flow into USDT. #5: Nov/20/17 to Nov/21/17: Tether hack USDT < USD Max spread -10% BTCUSD Bitfinex = BTCUSDT Poloniex BTCUSD Bitfinex = BTCUSD Coinbase and USDT 31 million got moved from the Tether treasury wallet to an unauthorized address. The event hit the news the day after, on Nov/20. Bitcoin prices crashed and quickly recovered. Tether got hacked #6: December 2017: peak bitcoin bubble USDT > USD Max spread +8% BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSDT Poloniex BTCUSD Bitfinex < BTCUSD Coinbase #7: Jan/16/18 to Jan/19/18: Korea considering closing exchanges (Note: using Binance hereon as it surpassed Poloniex in volume) USDT > USD Max spread +8% BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSDT Binance BTCUSD Bitfinex < BTCUSD Coinbase South Korean authorities said . Bitcoin prices crashed. shutting down crypto exchanges under consideration #8: Jan/28/18 to Feb/6/18: CFTC subpoena USDT < USD Max spread -6% BTCUSD Bitfinex = BTCUSDT Binance BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSD Coinbase to Tether & Bitfinex in December 2017, which mas made known to the public by the media on Jan/30. Bitcoin prices crashed. CFTC sent subpoenas #9: Sep/30/18 to Present (Oct/23/18): Bitfinex banking issues & Stable Coin Wars USDT < USD Max spread -15% BTCUSD Bitfinex = BTCUSDT Binance BTCUSD Bitfinex > BTCUSD Coinbase Tether experienced banking issues right after the debut of a series of competing stable coins. Bitcoin prices spiked. Covered in detail . here Other important bitcoin events where the USDTUSD spread did not deviate considerably: Jul/17/17: , ending a 34 day 41% pullback, and starting the next bull run. Miners signal SegWit support Aug/1/17: . Bitcoin cash hard forks Nov/8/17: . SegWit2x backers withdraw hard fork support Nov/31/17: . CME announces bitcoin futures Jan/27/18: . Tether confirms relationship with auditor dissolved Mar/7/18: , triggers second wave of the bear market. SEC publishes statement on potentially unlawful exchanges Apr/12/18: , +16.5% in 45 minutes. Bitcoin prices break upwards Aug/7/18: . SEC delays decision on Van Eck ETF Aug/22/18: . Bitmex maintenance pump Sep/5/18: . Bitcoin prices crash Other important bitcoin events for which USDTUSD data not readily available (Note: not readily available as USDTUSD started trading on Kraken on Mar/29/17, and before then one needs to look at a synthetic USDTUSD by looking at spreads with Poloniex or Bittrex) Feb/9/17: . Chinese exchanges block withdrawals Mar/10/17: . SEC rejects Winklevoss ETF Before you go… If you enjoyed reading this, please consider showing your support by clicking on the Clapping Hands button — the more the merrier, it increases visibility. Can share the article via the following links: | | | | | | | . You can also follow me on to stay connected. Thank you. Facebook Twitter Reddit LinkedIn Whatsapp Telegram Weibo Email Twitter
