We’ve spent six months in the banana zone. So far, it’s not a banana that goes up. It’s a banana that goes sideways, with swings above and below $100,000. We can’t say everybody’s selling massive amounts and exiting the market. We certainly see people taking a little bit out. Taking the edge off. Protecting capital and taking profits. “It’ll go up, but just in case, I’ll sell a bit.“ “Peeling” out You can see this in the metrics. I’ve reviewed HODL patterns in other updates. It’s not a massive groundswell of people racing for the exits, but it’s a larger proportion than normal. For example, the Spent Volume Age Bands show thicker bodies than usual, along with the typical big spikes. Those thicker bodies signal a higher steady-state of constant selling, not necessarily huge departures. Accumulation among wallets with .01 to 100 BTC remains subdued, though the 10–100 BTC band grew by 300 wallets (likely from businesses and investment funds). These behaviors tell you something about the mindset and psychology of people in the market. People tell me the rest of the year will see massive price increases, altseason, etc., but many of them aren’t putting more money into the market. Doesn’t that say something? Don’t split yet If you sell, make sure you set that money aside. It will be very tempting to put that money back in on the next dip — which defeats the purpose. Wait for the bottom to fall out. You also have to think about how market psychology will change if we continue to go sideways or down in the coming months. Most people will HODL until $93k and then sell low to buy lower. Or maybe wait to sell at even lower prices. Gurus will probably tell you to wait for a break of the 50 WMA or bull market support band, something we can talk about when those levels become realistic possibilities (not now). I’ll keep the orange line just in case you get FOMO or feel like you need to release that tension that has probably built up for a long time. It’s eating you up inside. Save that feeling (and money) for the bear market. They can last longer than you think, they’ll look great on a chart, and you’re probably telling yourself how happy you’ll be to buy at lower prices. Everything will feel a lot different when that time comes. Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also the author of three books and a top Bitcoin writer on Medium and Hacker Noon. Learn more about him in his bio and connect with him on Calendly. Crypto is Easy Crypto is Easy Crypto is Easy Medium Medium Medium Hacker Noon Hacker Noon Hacker Noon bio bio Calendly Calendly

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Psychology of the Banana Zone

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