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Anatomy of a Stablecoin's failure: the Terra-Luna case: Herding analysis: CSAD approach

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Table of Links

Abstract and 1. Introduction

2. Data and quantitative nature of the events

2.1. Hourly data analysis

2.2. Transaction data analysis

2.3. Anchor protocol

3. Methodology

3.1. Network analysis: Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph (TMFG)

3.2. Herding analysis

4. Results

4.1. Correlations and network analysis

4.2. Herding analysis: CSAD approach

5. Robustness analysis

6. Implications and future research

6.1. Relevance for stakeholders

6.2. Future lines of research

7. Conclusion, Acknowledgements, and References

Supplementary Material

4.2. Herding analysis: CSAD approach


Figure. 7: TMFG on 9 May 2022 12:00 UTC (c). As an effect of the second Terra de-pegging, LUNA was completely excluded from the core of the network.


Table 4: Regression results of CSADt on market returns. Both generalised form and distinguishing between positive and negative market returns. Significance at the 1%/5%/10% level is denoted by ***/**/*.


Authors:

(1) Antonio Briola, Department of Computer Science, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E 6EA - London, United Kingdom and UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, London, United Kingdom;

(2) David Vidal-Tomas (Corresponding author), Department of Computer Science, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E 6EA - London, United Kingdom, Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 - Castellon, Spain and UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, London, United Kingdom ([email protected]);

(3) Yuanrong Wang, Department of Computer Science, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E 6EA - London, United Kingdom and UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, London, United Kingdom;

(4) Tomaso Aste, Department of Computer Science, University College London, Gower Street, WC1E 6EA - London, United Kingdom, Systemic Risk Centre, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom, and UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, London, United Kingdom.


This paper is available on arxiv under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 DEED license.

[15] For robustness purposes, we applied Eq.(4) through rolling windows of 7 days, i.e. 168 hours/observations. However, the absence of herding remains. Moreover, if we remove stablecoins from our sample, whose returns are mainly 0 (e.g. USDT or DAI), we keep obtaining the same result.

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