Before you discount Tim’s prediction, let’s see if we can detract some valuable insights from it.
Leverage the Future
Forecasting is something that we all do. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a house or making an investment into bitcoin, we decide how we expect the future will unfold. These expectations are forecast.
One thing that I’ve picked up over the years (that I’d like to share with you should you have a few minutes) is how a forecast can set expectations and use his/her forecast to influence the perception.
What better way to do so than to use Tim Drapers forecast as an example.
The Toa of Tim Draper
For the BitCoin neophytes, Tim Draper is a seasoned venture capitalists and is one of Bitcoin’s loudest voices. He started looking into bitcoin when Satoshi first introduced it and in 2014 he became more vocal about it in public. Recently, he published a prediction, stating that bitcoin’s 2022 price will be $250K, and has since doubled down on that forecast.
What’s of particular interest for me and my group of forecasters is what is included in Tim’s forecast, specifically what it tells us about the markets and about us as a people.
Tim’s Forecast
What do you think BTC will be at the end of 2018? Predict now at KryptoLoop.
I predict $250K {bitcoin}
We know that bitcoin’s price has, from it’s inception, been on the rise, and many of us feel that it has a lot more room to grow. With that said, putting a $250K price prediction gives us something to discuss.
In this case, it is less about the $250K price prediction (aka the anchor) and more about the possibility of it getting there.
Think about what this forecast does to your brain? Does it make you excited? Does it make you cringe? It really doesn’t matter because it is something that you are considering and are deconstructing in order to put it into perspective.
The things you think about the most, and remember best, seem more important to you than other things_. — (_Scott Adams from Win Bigly)
This is the forecasters intention.
Directionally speaking, Tim know’s that bitcoin will be worth more than what it is trading at today and asking you to consider the possibility is his way of submitting this notion into your head.
“in 2022”
2022 is a magical year. I mean, I can’t think of anything magical that will happen in 2022, however it’s magical because it is four years away.
Instead, four is the magical number and is so because the number four is short enough for us to maintain our patience and long enough for this prediction to come to fruition.
Tim has given us his rationale for this prediction saying (paraphrasing) that in the next four years, crypto will have a market share of around 20% (of all USD Fiat) and bitcoin, specifically will have 20% of that. $250K will be it’s required price to keep pace with the market.
This statement is less important because it is purely speculative in nature, but again we aren’t talking about the forecasts accuracy and instead what it means.
Four years is a good benchmark and Tim’s right to use it.
What we haven’t yet discussed
Tim has been in the bitcoin acquisition business since 2014. I don’t know how much he owns, however many of his critics would argue that he is pumping up the market with this prediction because of his personal holdings. This may be true, however it is less important if it is because the sentiment is that he wants what the other 20 million bitcoin hodlers want, a crypto based economy and a higher bitcoin price (at least directionally speaking). Also, frankly speaking, Tim’s fund is well diversified in all things crypto (i.e. Coinbase, VeChain, etc.) and they heavily depend on BTC’s price steadily increasing.
There is no confidence level associated with this prediction
I may have missed this piece in my research, so if Tim did in fact associate a level of confidence, please add it to the comments below. However, the lack of an associated level of confidence, doesn’t mean that there isn’t one, instead it confirms my findings that he rather we interpret this $250K forecast for ourselves and add our own level of confidence to it.
I wouldn’t discount this forecast at all because from a persuasive nature, it has a lot of validity, especially when it is applied to human psychology. This is the type of forecasts that tends to build momentum and bring bitcoin closer to it’s expected potential.
I love you,
— Iggs
Igor is a cool guy to know. He has started companies, exited some, failed others and is the kind of guy that wants to see world peace, the next Avatar movie and a $250K bitcoin by 2022. He also run’s KryptoLoop, a crowd driven crypto price forecast platform to help investors access better information and upgrade their investment decision process. #LeverageTheFuture