Paradox of the future — AI and education — smarter machines and less smart humans
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The economics of artificial intelligence —
“AI serves a single, but potentially transformative, economic purpose: it significantly lowers the cost of prediction…[for] first-order input into many activities…[like] traditional prediction problems such as inventory management…[and] problems that we haven’t historically thought of as prediction problems…[like] autonomous driving….
AI makes a lot of mistakes…[learns] and updates its model every time it incorrectly predicts an action….[Also] when the price of prediction drops, the value of its substitutes will go down and the value of its complements will go up.
The main substitute for machine prediction is human prediction…[with] cognitive biases….[Since] data is an important complement to prediction, so as the cost of prediction falls, the value of a company’s data goes up….[Also] as the value of human prediction falls, the value of human judgment goes up because AI doesn’t do judgment….Another complement to prediction is action….
[AIs] will be efficiency-enhancing tools that will give the company some kind of a lift — possibly a 1 percent to 10 percent increase in EBITDA or [productivity_]_….
[T]o anticipate which AI tools will…lead to transformation, we…imagine it as a radio volume knob… turning up the prediction accuracy…[so]AI goes from…[incremental to] transformational….
[For] organizations to maximize the benefits of prediction machines.
- Develop a thesis on time to AI impact…for each of the key areas…on how fast the dial will turn.
- Recognize that AI progress will likely be exponential…rather than linear….
- Trust the machines…[and] carefully consider the conditions under which to empower humans to exercise their discretion to override the AI.
- Know what you want to predict…[to] clearly and accurately specify their objectives…. The companies that are able to sharpen their visions the most will reap the most benefits…[because] effectiveness is directly tied to goal-specification clarity.
- Manage the learning loop…..Companies need to…follow decisions to an outcome…learn from the outcome and feed that…back into the system.” https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-analytics/our-insights/the-economics-of-artificial-intelligence?cid=soc-web
Reducing Education &Knowledge Gaps_Vannevar Bush, Doug Engelbart & Virtual Assistants_medium.com
Education Department Unwinds Unit Investigating Fraud at For-Profits —
“[A] special team at the Education Department…investigating widespread abuses by for-profit colleges have been…effectively killed…where top hires of Betsy DeVos, the education secretary, had previously worked….
The investigation into DeVry ground to a halt early last year…[after] DeVos named Julian Schmoke, a former dean at DeVry, as the team’s new supervisor….[Also] investigations into Bridgepoint Education and Career Education Corporation [stopped]…[since] employees of those institutions now work for Ms. DeVos….
[DeVos] seems to think the colleges need protection from their students’…[and] taken a number of actions to roll back or delay regulations that sought to rein in abuses and predatory practices….
DeVry agreed to pay $100 million in 2016 to settle a…lawsuit alleging that it misled prospective students with ads about employment and salaries after graduation….
[Bridgepoint’s]Mercedes Schlapp…now the director of strategic communications at the White House…. Ms. Jones worked…as a senior vice president at Career Education Corporation…[also] joined the Trump administration….
Communication with outside groups now required special approval…. Without permission, team members could not contact schools or other parties to request documents…which effectively halted investigative work…..
’[They’re] removing the police force that keeps these colleges in check.’” https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/13/business/education-department-for-profit-colleges.html
Doc says — We’re Approaching An Autodidactic World_Child is father to the man_medium.com
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