Present issues bleeding into the future — China, Putin and Trump, social media and FBI’s Geek Squad informants — are disturbing any way you look at them.
Future issues — automation driving interest rates higher and synthetic biology factories — show how confusing the impact of new technologies will be.
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Present issues bleeding into the future
How the West got China wrong —
“[Seems] China stepped from autocracy into dictatorship…when Xi Jinping, already the world’s most powerful man, let it be known that he will change China’s constitution so that he can rule as president for as long as he chooses….
After the collapse of the Soviet Union…Western leaders believed that giving China a stake in institutions such as the [WTO]…that economic integration would encourage China to evolve into a market economy and that, as they grew wealthier, its people would come to yearn for democratic freedoms, rights and the rule of law….
[Instead] Xi has steered…towards repression, state control and confrontation…purging potential rivals [and]…imprisoning free-thinking lawyers and…criticism of the party and the government in the media and online…creating a surveillance state….
[Yet] it holds its authoritarian system up as a rival to liberal democracy…’and a Chinese approach to solving the problems facing mankind’….
China has been integrated into the global economy…[but] is not a market economy and, on its present course, never will be. Instead, it increasingly controls business as an arm of state power. It sees a vast range of industries as strategic…[with foreign] commerce always seems to be on China’s terms….
China embraces some Western rules, but also seems to be drafting a parallel system of its own…[like] Belt and Road Initiative, which promises to invest over $1tn in markets abroad, ultimately dwarfing the Marshall plan…[that] creates a Chinese-funded web of influence…[using] business to confront its enemies…[as] a complement to the hard power of armed force…bent on driving America out of East Asia_…._
[Oddly] America has been unwilling or unable to stop it…[and] lost its bet on China, just when its own democracies are suffering a crisis of confidence….[Trump’s] promise to ‘Make America Great Again’ smacks of a retreat into unilateralism that can only strengthen China’s hand….
The longer the West grudgingly accommodates China’s abuses, the more dangerous it will be to challenge them later….Rivalry between the reigning and rising superpowers…has raised the chance of devastating instability.” https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21737517-it-bet-china-would-head-towards-democracy-and-market-economy-gamble-has-failed-how
Putin praises Trump, says U.S. political system ‘eating itself’ —
“Putin described Trump as a great communicator…[and] made a very good impression on me’…[as] a ‘balanced’ man who easily gets into the gist of various issues and listens_….‘It’s possible to negotiate with him, to search for compromises’_….
U.S. political system, Putin said ‘has demonstrated its inefficiency and has been eating itself up. It’s quite difficult to interact with such a system, because it’s unpredictable’….
[T]he bitter tensions in Russia-West relations, Putin said they have been rooted in Western efforts to contain and weaken Russia…[and] Western sanctions over Crimea and the insurgency in eastern Ukraine as part of ‘illegitimate and unfair’ efforts to contain Russia….
’If we play strongly with weak cards, it means the others are…poor players [not]…as strong as it seemed…lacking something.’” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-praises-trump-says-us-political-system-eating-itself/ar-BBJYFBa?ocid=spartandhp
Social media handed ‘one-hour rule’ for terrorist takedowns in Europe —
“[EU’s] trying to rule social sharing platforms [pushing]…what it’s calling the ‘one-hour rule’…requiring companies take down…illegal content within one hour of it being reported… [because] poses a ‘particularly grave risk to the security of Europeans’, and thus its spread ‘must be treated as a matter of the utmost urgency’….
[Beyond] ISIS propaganda it would, for example, include content created by the banned UK Far Right hate group….
’Online platforms are becoming people’s main gateway to information, so they have a responsibility to provide a secure environment for their users. What is illegal offline is also illegal online….
UK government also revealed it had paid an AI company to develop a…tool that it said can automatically detect online propaganda produced by the Islam extremist hate group ISIS with ‘an extremely high degree of accuracy’….
[EU] wants social media giants to share learnings and techniques with smaller platforms, and…better cooperation with the relevant authorities, including Europol’…to tighten the screw on all ‘illegal content’…[that] undermines the trust of citizens in the Internet and poses security threats…[though] content providers should be informed…and have the opportunity to contest them’….
[Content] deemed illegal, such as child sexual abuse material or counterfeited goods’…[and] ‘encourages companies to follow the principle of proportionality when removing illegal content’…[with] more human moderators to act as the sanity check on AI-powered automation systems that are simply never going to be making flawless decisions in the chaotic field of content….
EC’s intent here is also to bolster cooperation between tech firms…and law enforcement authorities….Facebook, Google and Twitter, responded with disappointment and dismay to the Commission’s recommendations.” https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/02/social-media-handed-one-hour-rule-for-terrorist-takedowns-in-europe/
Geek Squad’s Relationship with FBI Is Cozier Than We Thought —
“FBI has paid Geek Squad employees as informants… to flag illegal material when people pay Best Buy to repair their computers…[and] potentially circumvents computer owners’ Fourth Amendment rights…for at least 10 years….
FBI agents developed a process for investigating and prosecuting people who sent their devices to the Geek Squad for repairs…[and] refused to confirm or deny…whether it has similar relationships with other computer repair facilities or businesses…[or] any internal procedures or training materials that govern when agents seek to cultivate informants at computer repair facilities.” https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2018/03/geek-squads-relationship-fbi-cozier-we-thought
Future issues
Automation will drive interest rates higher, a new report concludes-
“Central banks are now starting to push rates slightly higher…[and] trend towards robotics will push them higher still — at least for a decade….As companies scramble to borrow money [for]…machinery and robots [they]…will drive up rates….
20–25% of current jobs could be eliminated by 2030. This shift will be much faster than previous labor-market transformations, such as that from agriculture to industry at the start of the 20th century…[creating] an even more unequal economy….
[However] after the initial interest-rate surge, the increase in saving and the hit to demand could cause interest rates to plunge again, falling back to zero in real terms….As workers retire, they will run down their savings pots. Companies will substitute capital for labor….
[However] growth may be less important for rates than is the balance between fiscal and monetary policy. With fiscal policy easing in both America and Europe, monetary policy will need to be tightened…[making] the road to higher rates a bumpy one.
The piles of debt accumulated before the financial crisis have been redistributed rather than eliminated. A sudden rise in rates might hurt…[equity] shares [as]…employers compete for scarce workers, the discount rate would rise and profits would be squeezed. Homeowners, and companies with lots of debt on their balance-sheets, would get a nasty shock.” https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21737505-rates-rise-stress-levels-will-too-automation-will-drive-interest-rates-higher
The design of synthetic lifeforms could become a new industry —
“[DNA] biofoundries are being set up around the world…[to] work of genetic-engineering research…[and] mix, in the precise concentrations required, 150,000 samples of DNA in a morning.
The starting-point…is a library of [parts]…[or] snippets of genetic code from which different genetic ‘circuits’ can be assembled. A circuit, in biotech speak, is a collection of genes that work together towards a common goal…[and] then assembled into circular DNA molecules called plasmids. To obtain appropriate plasmids the foundry’s customers may simply order parts from the library…[or] provide their own proprietary snippets…[all] their contents mixed automatically.
The whole process is controlled by…computer code, provided by the customer, that describes the experiment…[then] introduced into living cells — either bacterial or yeast…incubated, and the result is tested to see which, if any, of the circuits performs as expected….[Foundries] can build and test about 15,000 different genetic designs in a day… store entire cell lines that may be tested later, or to grow tissues from them for testing_…_.
[Eventually] standards which are commonplace in other industries will start to emerge among biofoundries…[making] it easier for the process of designing new synthetic lifeforms to be scaled up from…boutique business it is now to something more like a global industry.” https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21737495-design-synthetic-lifeforms-could-become-new-industry-robotic-labs
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