Basic Attention Token (BAT) might seem like a unlikely candidate to start a bull run, let alone an even bigger one, but could end up proving invaluable in once again gaining the mainstream interest. To explain why, we first need to know what caused the previous bull run.
During the previous bull run at the end of 2017, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole were getting daily media coverage. CNBC had a “Fast Money Goes Crypto” episode, Forbes & Bloomberg had at least one article on Bitcoin a day, cryptocurrency ads were being aired on national television, and almost everybody was talking about it. This caused the price to increase at an unprecedented rate, getting even more media attention, bringing out the speculative investors, and causing a snowballing effect.
Than the more ‘reckless’ part of the general population, who didn’t want to miss their only chance to get rich quick, decided to invest without doing proper (or even any) research. This was a recipe for disaster, as we all know by now.
Next Bull Run
Currently investors are wary, mainstream interest is gone, and according to the media Bitcoin is still a worthless bubble. So about the same conditions as last time, right?
Not exactly, these reckless investors have either already lost most of their money, or won’t be ‘fooled’ twice.
This is why in my opinion, the next bull run will most likely be triggered by use cases, mainstream adoption, and in other words actual real-world value. Prices will undoubtedly still be affected by media attention and speculation, but unlike previously, these won’t be the main driving force behind them, at least initially.
Therefore attracting more conservative investors, but there is a catch, these investors won’t risk a significant amount of money straight away. They’ll need to be convinced, and see it with their own eyes (or money).
BAT’s Role
This is where BAT will prove it’s value, to find out why, we need to understand the concept behind BAT:
Basic Attention Token (BAT) is a token for a decentralized ad exchange, it compensates the browser user for his attention (viewing ads) while protecting his privacy. BAT connects advertisers, publishers, and users, while removing social and economic costs associated with existing ad networks, e.g., fraud, privacy violations, and malvertising.
Let’s focus on the compensation aspect for now, because this will be the killer feature driving mainstream adoption. According to Brendan Eich, CEO of Basic Attention Token, users will roughly earn $224/year, for browsing the web and viewing infrequent ads. Not an insignificant amount of money for most people.
These earnings can either be payed out in fiat or cryptocurrency, and will most likely be processed by Coinbase, as mentioned in my previous article. This means that every user who opts in to view BAT ads, will be exposed to other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and possibly even a bunch of ERC-20 tokens.
Now, most of these users will choose to directly cash out their earnings. However, some of them will be willing to risk their essentially ‘free money’ on some cryptocurrency, similar to a free bet or some free spins at a casino. Once these people see their risk-free investment increase in value, they might even be inclined to invest some of their ‘hard-earned money’. There is a reason most online casinos offer these kinds of promotions, because it’s the most effective way to get people to spend ‘their own money’.
Driving Adoption
For all of this to play out, BAT will first need to achieve mainstream adoption, but this won’t happen until their killer feature (BAT ads) is released. According to Luke Mulks, Senior Tech Specialist at Brave, Public ad trails will be introduced mid-summer, so most likely around August. So for now, let’s focus on what happens after this feature is released.
Currently Brave, a web browser app that integrates the BAT platform, is running a referral program, where publishers receive $5 worth of BAT for each user that downloads the brave browser. Over 7,444 creators are currently participating, including massive Youtubers like Philip Defranco (6 million subs) and Bart Baker (10 million Subs).
Combine this, with the $224/year an user can potentially earn by simply switching to a different browser, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for an gigantic explosion in user adoption.
Potential Users
There are entire communities dedicated to earning some extra money online, thousands of Youtube tutorials, hundreds of Facebook groups, and even a very active Reddit page, all dedicated to this topic. Now most of the current methods either take lots of time, or pay such a low amount that you won’t even reach the payout threshold, the thing is people still do them, regardless of the fact that they aren’t worth doing.
This is where BAT can change the game, an essentially passive way of earning a significant amount of side money, and a referral program that gives these ‘gurus’ an incentive to spread the word. Once BAT ads get released to the public, it won’t even take a month before almost everyone within these communities will be using it. These users will then spread the word to their friends and family, because who doesn’t like ‘free money’. The media will likely jump on the Bandwagon as well, with click-bait titles like “This browser will pay you to browse the internet” or “Is this crypto company the Google killer?”. In other words, everybody will be talking about it.
Snowballing Effect
As the awareness of BAT goes up, user adoption grows, more advertising money flows into the system. Meaning the price goes up even faster, giving investors even less incentive to sell, further reducing the actual circulating supply. Causing the price of BAT to quickly get out of control, bringing out the speculative investors, and creating a snowballing effect.
This is beginning to sound a lot like the previous bull run, right? Well yes, but there’s one ‘minor’ difference, it won’t solely be based on speculation, because there will be real demand and money being spend by advertisers.
This won’t only be good for BAT, but for the entire cryptocurrency maket. Since the money won’t be going to big corporations or unicorn startups, almost all of it will be flowing directly to the users, and therefore as mentioned previously a lot of it will be invested back in the cryptocurrency market.
Sustainable Bull Run
This will cause the entire market to quickly rise past it’s previous highs, while putting cryptocurrencies back into the media spotlight, and grabbing the attention of fresh investors. Almost exactly repeating the scenario of the previous bull run, but with one small difference, a constant stream of advertiser money being distributed to users, who will hopefully spend most of it on cryptocurrencies.
This will by itself cause an even bigger snowballing effect, because the faster the market rises, the more people are willing to invest their BAT earnings in cryptocurrencies. Convincing even more people to invest ‘their own money’, causing the market to rise even more, and repeating the cycle.
This means that the cycle, and therefore this potential bull run, could be sustained as long as new users keep joining the ecosystem. Even when this cycle is broken, as in no new users join the BAT-ecosystem, the entire market would probably keep growing for a good while, due to the amount of new investors flooding the market everyday.
Disclaimer: This article is my opinion and is for information purposes only, it is not intended as investment advice. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice.
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