Future Wars Will Be Fought with AI-Powered Weapons and Autonomous Drones

Today at a Glance

• Introduction
• AI and the Military
• How is AI being used in the military and defence?
• Why is AI important to the military?
• etc.

Introduction

Humans are the dominant species on Earth, but we are not the strongest, fastest, most venomous, or most durable. What gives us our edge?

When compared to the physically strongest animal on the planet, a gorilla could smash our brains into the ground without hesitation.

We are not the fastest species. A cheetah's leisurely sleepwalk is quicker than the world's fastest man.

We aren't the most venomous species. I think a hippopotamus would prefer our bite over a king cobra's any day of the week.

We aren't even the most durable species. Cockroaches can survive extreme amounts of radiation.

We don't have any interesting built-in biological defences either. A skunk will raise its tail and spray a predator with a foul-smelling liquid. The smell is so strong that it can make a predator vomit. Porcupines have sharp quills that they can use to protect themselves.

Humans are vulnerable. The vast majority of animals on the planet could easily kill us if given the chance, yet we continue to be the dominant species. "What do we have that others don't?"

Simply our brains.

Humans have the largest brains in the animal kingdom, relative to our body size. This gives us a significant advantage in terms of intelligence, problem-solving, and planning.

We also have the ability to cooperate with each other. This allows us to work together to achieve common goals, such as hunting, building shelters, and defending ourselves from predators.

Finally, we have the ability to use tools. This gives us a significant advantage in terms of hunting, gathering, and warfare.

A snake will never create a more efficient life for itself. It will always hunt prey with its venom and return home when it's satisfied. It's the only thing the snake knows how to do, and it will never be able to start a business hiring other snakes to do the work for it. Birds don't have the ability to think about how to improve their nests, so they just use the same basic design over and over again.

Through our intellect, we are able to domesticate other species for our own selfish needs, such as entertainment and food. We manage animals by luring them with their most basic biological need, food. The chicken in the slaughterhouse adapts to its ordeal by being fed until Christmas.

My point is what happens when a new thing enters the ecosystem that exceeds us physically and mentally. They will domesticate humans in the same way that we have domesticated other animals. And can this be AI?

That’s just by the way; we can’t say.

AI and the Military

The world is on the edge of a new era of warfare, one that will be shaped by artificial intelligence. Officially, they are called lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), but critics call them killer robots.

One of the largest sources of funding for AI research came from the Defence Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA), which is an agency of the Department of Defence of the United States responsible for the development of new technologies for use by the military. Recently, the Indian government increased military funding to develop new and advanced applications or systems using AI.

A United Nations report suggests that autonomous drones may have been used in combat for the first time in Libya in 2020. The report found that Turkish-made Kargu-2 drones were used in fully automatic mode to attack combatants. Autonomous drones have also played a significant role in the war in Ukraine, where both Russia and Ukraine have deployed these uncrewed weapons to target enemy soldiers and infrastructure.

Artificial Intelligence will be a critical part of modern warfare, with one major reason being that it is capable of handling large amounts of data more efficiently.

How is AI being used in the military and defence?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being used in various ways by military and defence organisations. From warfare platforms to cybersecurity, logistics and transportation, target recognition, battlefield healthcare, combat simulation, training, and treatment. Some common applications include:

1. Situational Awareness: AI algorithms are being used to process large amounts of data from various sources, such as drones, satellites, and ground sensors, to provide real-time situational awareness and threat detection.
2. Predictive Maintenance: AI algorithms are used to predict equipment failures and maintenance needs, reducing downtime and increasing operational readiness.
3. Autonomous Weapons: AI algorithms are being used to develop autonomous weapons such as drones and unmanned ground vehicles that can perform tasks without human intervention.
4. Cybersecurity: AI algorithms are being used to detect and prevent cyberattacks, enhancing the overall cybersecurity posture of military networks and systems.
5. Decision-Making: AI algorithms are being used to assist human decision-makers by providing real-time analysis and recommendations, reducing the time taken to make informed decisions in high-stress, high-stakes environments.

It's worth noting that the use of AI in the military and defence raises important ethical and moral questions and is a subject of ongoing public debate.

The US Army deployed MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system launchers at Rzeszow-Jasionka Airport in Poland on March 24, 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These missiles can identify, select, and engage targets without human intervention[REUTERS/Stringer]

Why is AI important to the military?

AI will be important to the military because it promises to make military decisions specifically easier; they could carry out some battlefield tasks without the use of soldiers, thus reducing the risk of casualties and improving troops' fighting potential, all while radically modifying, if not revolutionizing, the structure of military systems.

AI is likely to be used by militaries to aid decision-making by giving humans information as they make decisions or taking over the entire decision-making process. It might be observed in circumstances where communication is restricted or in cyberspace, where the action occurs at speeds beyond human comprehension. Due to these aspects, artificial intelligence has become a fervent topic with great expectations within the defence technology industry.

Other areas can AI be used for military purposes today?

AI is increasingly being used in various military applications today, including reconnaissance, logistics, and even weapon systems.

• AI-enabled drones, for example, can be used to search for and identify targets or gather intelligence on enemy positions and movements. AI algorithms can also be used to process and analyze the vast amounts of data that are collected by these drones, enabling the military to quickly identify and respond to potential threats.

• AI is also being researched and developed for weapon systems. Autonomous weapons, also known as Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), are systems that are able to select and attack targets without human intervention. There is a big debate about the ethical and legal implications of such weapons, and many countries and international organizations have called for a ban on autonomous weapons. Despite the legal framework and ethical considerations, the research and development of such systems are ongoing in some countries.

• AI is being used to improve logistics and supply chain management. For example, AI algorithms can be used to optimize the routes of military convoys, reducing fuel consumption and the risk of attack, or to predict equipment failures and schedule maintenance.

• Mine-sweeping drone bots that can use feature maps to analyze and identify mines, deactivate them, or carry them away are akin to those used by drones.

• Combat simulations in terms of VR situations can help train soldiers for more realistic battle circumstances.

• Combat helmets with visors that analyze your environment or provide extra specific vision, think night vision but simulate a better picture

• Analyzing the situation of missiles fired is akin to using satellite defence grid systems to shoot down the correct missile instead of targeting trash.

• image-analyzing missiles that can trigger detonation from within, based on scanning the perimeter when firing.

It's important to note that while AI is increasingly being used in military applications today, much of this work is still in the research and development phase, and the full extent to which AI will be used in the military in the future is not yet clear.

What happens if we use AI in Wars?

Being the future of everything else, AI will be the future of warfare. It will increasingly process defence-related information, filter such data for the greatest threats, make defence decisions based on its programmed algorithms, and perhaps even direct combat robots.

But its impact will mostly be felt in the following areas:

• Increased lethality: AI-powered weapons could be more accurate and lethal than traditional weapons, leading to more casualties.
• New forms of warfare: AI could be used to develop new forms of warfare, such as cyberwarfare and autonomous weapons systems.
• Disproportionate impact on civilians: AI-powered weapons could be more likely to kill or injure civilians than traditional weapons, due to their increased accuracy and lethality.
• Increased risk of escalation: The use of AI in wars could increase the risk of escalation, as countries compete to develop more sophisticated AI-powered weapons.
• Challenges to international law: The use of AI in wars could challenge existing international law, such as the laws of war and the Geneva Conventions.

Risks and Benefits of AI in the Military

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in military applications brings both risks and benefits. Let's explore…

Risks:

1. Autonomous Weapons: One risk is the development of autonomous weapons that can make decisions without human intervention. This raises concerns about the potential for accidents, misuse, or unethical behaviour. Autonomous killing robots a la Terminators will likely be possible very soon, and you can bet that advanced militaries like the US and China are working on these types of things. Pilotless drones and robotic missiles already exist.

2. Lack of Human Judgment: Relying heavily on AI may lead to a reduced role for human judgment, which could result in critical decisions being made solely by machines.

3. Vulnerability to Cyberattacks: AI systems can be vulnerable to cyberattacks, potentially leading to unauthorized access, manipulation, or disruption of military operations.

4. Escalation of Conflict: The use of AI in military applications could escalate conflicts if it leads to an arms race, where countries compete to develop more advanced and powerful AI technologies.

Benefits:

1. Improved Efficiency: AI can enhance military operations by automating routine tasks, augmenting human decision-making, and improving overall efficiency.
2. Enhanced Intelligence: AI systems can analyze large amounts of data, providing military personnel with valuable insights and intelligence for better strategic planning and situational awareness.
3. Reduced Human Casualties: Deploying AI in certain military tasks, such as surveillance or bomb disposal, can potentially reduce the risks faced by human personnel and save lives.
4. Precision and Accuracy: AI-enabled systems can improve the accuracy and precision of military operations, such as targeting systems, resulting in reduced collateral damage and more effective engagements.

To many experts and human rights groups, the risks of these autonomous weapons outweigh any potential advantages, ranging from the possibility of technical malfunctions with no oversight to violations of international law and ethical concerns over emotionless machines making decisions of life and death.

Striking the right balance between human oversight and AI capabilities is crucial to ensuring responsible and ethical use in the military domain.

Being futuristic: AI will perform more identifying and distinguishing potential targets while humans make only high-level decisions

Will AI fully replace the military?

The U.S. military is actively pursuing artificial intelligence to be used in all kinds of situations. Although, currently, it is not being utilized to its full potential, it can be horrifically powerful if used maliciously.

In any case, I can’t fully see artificial intelligence replacing the military one day, but instead, the military will fully use this technology. Using it to reduce battlefield casualties, being more precise with drone strikes with no collateral damage, driverless tanks, etc.

Just to add, several African and Middle Eastern countries have called for a complete ban on fully autonomous weapons systems. These countries include Algeria, Namibia, Ghana, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Palestine. South Africa has also called for regulations on these weapons but has not gone so far as to call for a complete ban.

The only thing that concerns me with Artificial Intelligence is not killer robots roaming the streets, but rather bad actors using this technology to achieve malicious goals. We must not allow this to happen. AI is a powerful tool that can be used for good or for evil. It is important to be aware of the potential risks of AI and to take steps to mitigate those risks.

Also published here on my newsletter.