Wars, floods and chaos as the new normal
This story is part of the Web3 Writing Contest hosted by The Octopus Network in collaboration with HackerNoon.
We should probably feel upbeat, as crypto markets are starting to recover from their Lunar New Year lull, just as we predicted they would. However, there is a lot of other things going on which give us pause (paws?) for thought.
Around the world, the COVID pandemic seems to be waning, and new virus variants seem less deadly than their forebears. This is good, but it is a slow recovery and a long way to go back to “normal”; if that is even possible. Even when in a meeting with someone who is triple-vaccinated, the handshake may be absent or awkward, and the psychological scars or multiple lockdowns may be with us for years to come.
Russia is at war, the USA has applied sanctions and world supply chain issues still drag on. We anticipate higher prices on many commodities will be an issue for the next 12-24 months. The higher prices due to lack of supply are also compounded by underlying inflation: the bonfire fuelled by central banks printing trillions of dollars in paper cash as a dubious panacea for the pandemic.
Long-time readers will know that BostonTrading.co initially forecast lower rates, cash-printing and hyperinflation back in
Like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the COVID outbreak was merely the straw that broke the economy’s back. The early warning signs of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC1) were felt as far back as 2006, when Michael Burry placed__“The Big Short”__ and Jeremy Britton wrote the warnings in his
We are now well into GFC2, with shortages of not only toilet paper, but also things like copper, gold, silver, lithium and more. If you had been following the early analysis, you may have picked up some treasures along the way, and be in a good position now. If you are new to the puppy pack, do not fret: we will continue to provide you with updates (pup-dates?) from our long-range economic forecasts, so you will always be ahead of the wave.
Anarchy is not exactly chaos
There are images floating around the interwebz that show anarchy as riots in the streets, looting, violence and absolute chaos, however, this popular idea may not be true. Dictionary definitions of anarchy vary greatly, with some claiming it is a “state of disorder, lawlessness, riot, rebellion and mutiny”. Other definitions show a gentler side to anarchy, defining it as “society being freely constituted without authorities or a governing body”.
That second definition may sit well with those who seek a simpler life.
A few centuries ago, there were citizens who lived close to the palace of the King or Queen and in large cities. The in-dwellers used currency, paid taxes, went to the markets to buy and sell goods, obeyed the sometimes fickle ruler and lived a life of relative security.
Far away from the palace, the out-dwellers chopped their own wood, grew their own food and, aside from the occasional bandit, lived a life of relative security. Depending on how far you lived from the ruler, city or government, you may have been unaware of whether the King was alive or dead, and may have been unaware of the concept of fiat currency. In self-sufficient farming communities, life was simple and bartering worked most of the time.
Obviously, there are many Russian citizens who do not support their government waging war in Ukraine. There are many citizens in the rest of the world who do not support their government creating so many lockdowns, printing cash like there is no tomorrow or many other decisions that have been recently enacted.
Whilst we do not support any form of violence, riots or mutiny, there may be some value in peaceful anarchy and “opting out” of many systems.
If you are fortunate enough to be able to grow even a small percentage of your own food, then you will be less reliant on governments or the supply chain. If you have some funds allocated to crypto, gold, silver or other scarce commodities, you will be less impacted by hyperinflation or the devaluing of paper currency. The US dollar has lost over 97% of its purchasing power since it was created in 1913, but an ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold, a tin of coffee is still a tin of coffee and a Bitcoin is still a Bitcoin. That which is scarce or finite cannot be inflated away. Selah*.
Crypto: come for the returns, stay for the revolution
As we compiled this month’s update, it is not only pandemic, war and supply-chain shortages that we face. Serious weather events, including a “rain bomb” and severe flooding have impacted Australia, with many houses being flooded, and many more communities left for up to a week without internet and or electricity.
As someone who is right in the thick of the torrential downpours, it is great to see little ‘rays of sunshine’ emerging during the storms and floods. These are not literal sunbeams, but human heroes who do whatever it takes to help their neighbours.
We have witnessed people with electricity running long cables out of their house to assist neighbours who have had no power for days. Those who have spare generators offer them to those in need. Friends and family have braved the storms to bring warm food, gas stoves, hot water and battery packs to those without power. Electricians and plumbers have walked the streets, knocking on doors to aid those who may have damaged homes or appliances.
Some people have offered their houses as a temporary sanctuary to those who have had to evacuate flooded homes. It is heartening to see communities rally together to help each other; with no intervention required by governments.
Imagine the peaceful community all assisting each other as best as they can in the chaos of flooding in Queensland and Northern New South Wales. It may be seen as a microcosm of the global crypto community: a community that can exist without the intervention of a ruler or a ruling class.
Elsewhere, the government in the USA has stated that it will not fight directly against Russia, but anonymous cyber hackers are trying to cripple Russian communication systems, and crypto communities from around the world have been sending cryptocurrency into Ukraine to assist Ukrainian defence efforts. It is a beautiful thing to see humanity and compassion shining bright in what can seem to be dark times.
How have we fared this month?
Despite operating without internet and electricity for up to a week, the puppy pack have managed to stay safe and dry, due largely to assistance from the local community. The Boston portfolios show signs of recovery, as we recover from the annual Lunar New Year doldrums, and increasing global uncertainty drives investors into crypto and away from the devaluing fiat currency.
Bostoncoin portfolio update (BOS)
Whilst the OG crypto (Bitcoin) is still around 20% lower than what it was last year, due to the diversified nature of the world’s first crypto fund portfolio, Bostoncoin is still up.
Winners this month include:
LUNA up 64% month on month (MOM), as investors eschew Tether (USDT) for a variety of reasons, not only limited to backing by Chinese real estate instead of dollars or fraudulent USDT records. We do not recommend Tether to anyone for any purpose. Luna have their own stable coin (Terra, UST), which has increased dramatically in popularity, and whilst UST is stable and fixed at $US1, we expect further gains from the LUNA parent.
**SECRET up 147%**year on year (YOY) as more people open up to the idea of privacy control on smart contracts.
BAT up 139% YOY and we expect more from this one, as Facebook loses billions in ad-targeting revenue and web-users demand a slice of advertising dollars.
LPT up 696% YOY as the blockchain version of live-streaming entertainment comes into its own form of decentralised revenue sharing.
XYO up 5196% YOY as integrity in supply and delivery becomes more important.
As of Feb 28, 2022
BOS price 158.809677
BOS NAV 144.372434
MOM (-21.37)
1yr 12.35%
3yr 172.83% (average)
POLLYcoin portfolio update (POLLY)
Move along, nothing much to see here. POLLY is backed by hard currency so does not go up and down. She sits stable and pays an income of 5% per year, so your cash savings can party like it’s 1999. If your friends are still earning 0.1% on their lazy cash, tell them that POLLY is still living like it is the last days of the old Millennium and paying 5% pa, with monthly income.
Feb 28, 2022
POLLYcoin (Principal Outcome Lateral, Low Yield)
POLLY price $1.00
POLLY NAV $0.97
POLLY income 5% per annum
DARTcoin portfolio update (DART)
This crazy little boy has been on a wild ride over his first 12-18 months of beta-testing and he was not allowed in public until he calmed down.
Sage investments into some altcoins worked well, with massive climbs up to 50 892% followed by an 82% drop. This portfolio is NOT for the faint-hearted, and we recommend less than 5% of your portfolio allocation in DARTcoin, unless you are a highly-sophisticated investor or you enjoy rollercoasters.
RUNE up 10 385% is a standout winner for DART. Many of the other coins in the DART portfolio are majorly behind, or only slightly ahead. Despite huge climbs, with the sharp falls, the DARTcoin portfolio outperformed both Bostoncoin and Bitcoin for the full year.
Feb 28, 2022
DARTcoin (Digital Asset, Risk Targeted)
DART price 224.631
DART NAV 204.21
MOM (-79.6%)
1yr 194.86%
That is it for the monthly roundup. We trust that you and your loved ones are staying safe. If you can, avoid warzones, floods, scammers, spammers and flim-flammers.
If you spot anything weird or wonderful in the crypto world, please send us an email to let us know, before you invest or before you tell others to do so. If the project is great and we love it, we may send you some Boston swag as a gift. If the project is highly dubious or outright criminal, we can help protect you from it.
Always read the warning labels, and if there are no warnings on a crypto project, run the heck away, as they are clearly not being honest.
JB
*Selah: this word is used 70+ times in the Old Testament/Torah. Although the exact meaning has been lost to time, it is often written as a single word sentence after a profound thought. The most helpful translation is: "pause here and reflect on this". Let's bring this one back :)