Izithiyo Zesiginali Zikuthinta Kanjani Ukuthonya Kwe-Bayesian Ezivivinyweni Zezigaba Eziningi?

Ithebula Lezixhumanisi

Abstract kanye 1. Isingeniso

2. Ukwakhiwa Kwenkinga

2.1 Imodeli Yokuhlolwa Kwemiphumela Emibili Ezivivinyweni Zezigaba Ezimbili

Izivivinyo ezi-3 zomphumela kanambambili Ezivivinyweni zezigaba ezimbili kanye nokuhlolwa okungu-3.1 ngokuhlolwa

3.2 Imicabango kanye namasu akhangisiwe

3.3 Izithiyo ezinikezwe ukuhlolwa kwesigaba-II

3.4 Isilinganiso sokuthonya kanye nesakhiwo sokubonisa esilungile

3.5 Ukuqhathanisa namasu okukholisa ase-Bayesia akudala

4 Ukuhlolwa Komphumela kanambambili ekuhlolweni kwezigaba eziningi kanye 4.1 Imodeli yokuhlolwa kwemiphumela kanambambili ekuhlolweni kwezigaba eziningi

4.2 Ukuhlolwa okunqunyiwe kuqhathaniswa nomthumeli

4.3 Imodeli yezigaba eziningi kanye ne-classical Bayesian persuasion and References

Abstract

Sicabangela inkinga ye-Bayesian yokukholisa lapho umthumeli ezama ukuncenga umamukeli ukuthi athathe isenzo esithile ngokusebenzisa amasiginali alandelanayo. Lokhu sikumodela ngokucabangela ukuhlola kwezigaba eziningi ngokuhlolwa okuhlukile okwenziwe ngokusekelwe emiphumeleni yokuhlolwa kwangaphambilini. Ngokuphambene neningi lezincwadi, sicabangela inkinga ngemikhawulo kumasignali abekwe kumthumeli. Lokhu sikuthola ngokulungisa ezinye zezivivinyo ngendlela engavamile; lokhu kubizwa ngokuthi ukuhlola okunqunyiwe. Lokhu kumodela kusisiza siqonde izimo zomhlaba wangempela lapho lokhu kwenzeka khona: isb, ukuhlolwa kwezidakamizwa kwezigaba eziningi lapho i-FDA inquma ezinye zezivivinyo, ukutholwa kokuqala okwenziwa izinkampani ezinkulu lapho ongase athole khona enquma ukuhlolwa kwesigaba sekwephuzile, inhlolokhono yemisebenzi eminingi eyindilinga. lapho abazobhapathizwa bebonisa khona ekuqaleni ngokwethula iziqu zabo kodwa zonke ezinye izinqubo zokuhlola zinqunywa obuza imibuzo. Ukuhlola okunganqunyiwe (amasignali) ekuhlolweni kwezigaba eziningi kuzokhethwa umthumeli ukuze kuncenge umamukeli kangcono kakhulu. Ngesimo sokumbambambili somhlaba, sithola inqubomgomo yokusayina elungile ekucushweni okungeyona okuncane kuphela kwesilingo sezigaba ezimbili esinokuhlolwa kwemiphumela kanambambili. Sibe sesihlanganisela ocwaningweni lwezigaba eziningi ngokuhlolwa kwemiphumela kanambambili lapho ukuhlola okunqunyiwe kungabekwa ezindaweni ezithile esihlahleni sokulinga. Lapha sethula i-algorithm yokuhlela eguquguqukayo ukuze kutholwe inqubomgomo yokusayina ephelele esebenzisa imininingwane yesakhiwo yesixazululo sesivivinyo sezigaba ezimbili. Siphinde futhi siqhathanise isakhiwo senqubomgomo yokusayina esilungile namasu okukholisa ase-Bayesia asendulo ukuze sigqamise umthelela wezingqinamba zokusayina kumthumeli.

Amagama angukhiye : Idizayini yolwazi · Ukuthonya kweBayesia · Imidlalo yokubonisa izimpawu.

1 Isingeniso

Idizayini yolwazi icwaninga ukuthi abenzeli abanolwazi (abathumeli) banxenxa kanjani abenzeli abangenalwazi (abamukeli) ukuthi bathathe izinyathelo ezithile ngokuthonya izinkolelo zabenzeli abangenalwazi ngokudalula ulwazi kugeyimu. Imodeli yeCanonical Kamenica-Gentzkow [16] ingenye lapho umthumeli angazibophezela khona kunqubomgomo yokudalulwa kolwazi (isu lokusayina) ngaphambi kokufunda isimo sangempela. Uma isimo senziwe, isignali ehambisanayo (engahleliwe) ithunyelwa kumamukeli. Bese, umamukeli uthatha isenzo, esiholela enkokhelweni kubo bobabili umthumeli nomamukeli. Abathumeli ezinkingeni zedizayini yolwazi badinga kuphela ukukhohlisa izinkolelo zabamukeli ngamasignali akhethwe kahle. Izinkolelo eziguquliwe zizodala izinzuzo ezifanele zokuthi umamukeli enze ngokuzenzakalelayo izenzo ezithile ezizuzisa umthumeli (ngokulindelekile). Nokho, ekwakhiweni kwemishini (yakudala), indaba ihlukile: umklami akalwazi ulwazi oluyimfihlo lwe-ejenti, futhi ama-ejenti adlulisela ulwazi lwawo oluyimfihlo kumklami, okuzomele anikeze izikhuthazo ngokudluliswa (kwemali) noma ngezinye izindlela. . Ukuvumelana nezimo okuhlinzekwa idizayini yolwazi evumela umthumeli ukuthi azuze ekudalulweni kolwazi ngaphandle kokusebenzisa izindlela zokudlulisa usizo kuholele ekusetshenzisweni okukhulu kwendlela yokusebenza: amamodeli ahlukahlukene nezinkolelo-mbono zingatholakala emaphepheni ohlolo afana ne- [3] kanye ne- [15].

Umsebenzi wethu ugqugquzelwa izinkinga eziningi zomhlaba wangempela lapho izinhlelo zokuncenga zisebenza khona, kodwa umthumeli ubambezelekile ekukhetheni amasiginali atholakalayo ukuze akhelwe ulwazi. Ngokukhethekile, sinentshisekelo ezinkingeni ezimodelwa ngokwemvelo kusetshenziswa izivivinyo zezigaba eziningi lapho imiphumela yesikhashana inquma ukuhlolwa okulandelayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, sigcizelela ukuthi ezinye zezivivinyo zinikezwa ngendlela engavamile. Lesi sici sibeka imikhawulo esikhaleni sokusayina somthumeli, futhi ngaphandle kwaso, besiyoba nenkinga yakudala yokukholisa yaseBayesi nesikhala sesignali esikhulisiwe. Umgomo wethu uwukufunda umthelela wemikhawulo enjalo esikimini sokusayina esilungile, futhi ikakhulukazi, ukusiqhathanisa nezikimu zokusayina ezifanele ekuncengeni kweBayesi yakudala.

Isibonelo esilandelayo esikhuthazayo sichaza isimo esingaba khona somhlaba wangempela.

Isibonelo 1 (Isibonelo esikhuthazayo - Ukuthola izimali enkampanini yebhizinisi) . Sicubungula isimo lapho umuntu oqalayo efuna imali enkampanini yemali eyibhizinisi. Inqubo yalokhu ngokuvamile izobandakanya imizuliswano eminingi yokuxoxisana nokuhlola: okunye kwalokhu kuzoba ukuboniswa komqondo webhizinisi oyinhloko, kanti okunye kuzoba ukuhlolwa okwenziwa yinkampani yezohwebo elandela izinqubo zabo zokuhlola. Isiqalo kuzofanele silandele izinqubo zokuhlola zefemu yemali kodwa sikhethe imibukiso yemikhiqizo yayo. Ngokusekelwe kule migomo, ukuqalisa kudinga ukuklama imibukiso yakhona ukuze kwandiswe ithuba layo lokuthola uxhaso.

Esibonelweni esingenhla, oqalayo (umthumeli) kufanele enze uhlelo lokudalula ulwazi ukuze athole izimali ezidingekayo enkampanini yemali eyibhizinisi (umamukeli). Khona-ke izinqubo zokuhlola ezibekwe inkampani yemali eyibhizinisi ziyafana nokuhlola kwethu okunqunyiwe, futhi imibukiso eyenziwa ekuqaleni iwukuhlola okuklanywe (umthumeli). Isibonelo, kuMfanekiso 1 sethula ukusebenzisana okukodwa okubambekayo lapho inkampani eqalayo idizayina imiboniso engu-A, B, no-C (imibuthano esesithombeni) kanye nefemu yemali eyibhizinisi inezivivinyo zokuhlola ezinqunywe kusengaphambili i-W, X, Y, kanye no-Z. (onxande esithombeni). Nakuba lesi sibonelo sisibonise ngesihlahla esilinganiselayo, uma sinesihlahla esingalingani ngenxa yomamukeli onquma phakathi nendawo, singasishintsha sibe esihlahleni esinokulinganisela ngokwengeza inombolo edingekayo yezigaba ze-dummy.

Ukuvumelana nezimo komthumeli okuncishisiwe kumasu akhe okusayina ngaphansi kokuhlolwa okunqunywe kusengaphambili okunezikhundla ezingafanele nolwazi kuhlukanisa umsebenzi wethu nezincwadi ezikhulayo zedizayini yolwazi oluguquguqukayo. Imodeli yethu ibheka inkinga ngezici ezilandelayo: indawo yesimo esimile, indawo yokudalulwa kolwazi olulandelanayo, kanye nesikhala sokusayina esikhawulelwe ezinye izingqinamba zangaphandle okunokhahlo kwazo kungase kuncike ezinhlelweni ezihlongozwayo zokukodwa. Amamodeli anendawo yesimo esimile, isikhala sesignali esingakhawulelwe kodwa izindawo ezihlukahlukene zokudalulwa kolwazi ezilandelanayo ziye zacutshungulwa ukuze kuthathwe izici ezinkingeni zomhlaba wangempela ezihlukene: isb, ngabathumeli abaningi [12,19], ngokuxhumana okubizayo [14,22] ], okuvumela ukwenza izinqumo ezilandelanayo [10], noma ngokuzibophezela okuncane [1,22]. Amamodeli anezimo eziguqukayo kanye nezimo zokudalulwa kolwazi olulandelanayo ngokuvamile afundwa ngaphansi komthumeli onolwazi ngolwazi lwezimo ezishintshashintshayo; imisebenzi ehlukahlukene kulesi sigaba ilele ekutholweni koshintsho lwesimo [9,11] noma imidlalo yomzila [21]. Nakuba imisebenzi eminingana [7,13,18] iphinde icabangele izikimu zokusayina eziphoqelekile, le misebenzi ingase icabangele isikhala sesignali njengesincane kunendawo yesenzo [13,7] noma icabangele indawo yokubonisa enomsindo [18]. Amamodeli anolwazi lwangaphandle [17,5,4], angabhekwa njengezinkinga zokudalulwa kolwazi olulandelanayo ngokuhlolwa okunqunyiwe kwangaphandle okubekwe ezigabeni ezinqunyiwe. Ukudalulwa kolwazi olulandelanayo kumodeli yethu, empeleni okwandisa isikhala sesiginali, kwenza umsebenzi wethu uhluke emisebenzini engaphezulu. Ukuze sigcine ukugxila kwephepha ekuhloleni okulandelanayo, sixoxa ngezincwadi ezibanzi ngabathumeli ababoshiwe, idizayini yolwazi lwe-algorithmic, kanye nemisebenzi ehlobene nedizayini yokuhlola yomamukeli[1] enguqulweni yethu ye-inthanethi [23].

Ngokwesibonelo esishukumisayo esiboniswe kuMfanekiso 1, inkinga yokukholisa ibheka ukulandelana kokuhlolwa lapho ukuhlolwa okuqhubekayo esihlahleni kuncike emiphumeleni yezigaba ezedlule. Ukuhlolwa okuzokwenziwa esigabeni ngasinye kunqunywa ngokwedlulele noma kukhethwe umthumeli. Kugeyimu, umthumeli ukhetha ukuhlola okuklanyelwe ngolwazi lwangaphambilini, ukuhlola okunqunyiwe, nomsebenzi wokusetshenziswa komamukeli, kodwa ngaphambi kokuba isimo somhlaba sibonakale. Ngemva kokuba umthumeli ezibophezele ekuhloleni (okungukuthi, isu lokusayina), isimo somhlaba siyabonakala, futhi ukulandelana okukhethekile kokuhlolwa kwenziwa ngokusekelwe ekufezekeni kokuhlukahluka okungahleliwe okucashile. Umamukeli ube esethatha isenzo kuye ngalo lonke ukulandelana kwemiphumela. Okwangaphambili, okokusebenza komthumeli nomamukeli, ukuhlola okunqunyiwe, nokuhlola okuklanyiwe (ngemuva kokuba umthumeli esekuphothulile) kuthathwa njengolwazi oluvamile. Sitadisha le nkinga ngezimo zomhlaba kanambambili, okokuqala ngezigaba ezimbili zokuhlolwa kwemiphumela kanambambili, bese kwenziwa kabanzi ukuze kube nezigaba eziningi zokuhlola imiphumela kanambambili. Bese sihlanganisela ekuhlolweni okungekona oku kanambambili (kusenendawo engaphansi yesimo kanambambili). Enguqulweni eku-inthanethi [23] sengeza imidlalo enesigaba esengeziwe lapho umamukeli ehamba ngaphambi komthumeli ukuze anqume okunye noma konke ukuhlola okunqunyiwe, mhlawumbe ngezinye izingqinamba.

Iminikelo : Iminikelo eyinhloko yalo msebenzi yilezi:

1. Ngolwazi lwethu olungcono kakhulu, ngaphakathi kohlaka lokuncenga lwe-Bayesia olunezigaba eziningi, singabokuqala ukutadisha idizayini yezinhlelo zokusayina zabathumeli ngokuhlolwa okunqunywe ngokwedlulele ezindaweni ezingafanele. Imiphumela yethu igqamisa umehluko phakathi "kokuhlola okunqunywe kudala" kanye "nolwazi olunikezwe ngaphandle kwemvelo" ekwakhiweni kolwazi oluguquguqukayo, lapho okokuqala kunikeza ukuguquguquka okukhulu futhi kuvumela ukuhlukahluka okwengeziwe.

   
   

2. Sixazulula ngokusobala isikimu sokusayina esilungile ekuhlolweni kwezigaba ezimbili. Ngaphezu kwalokho, sisebenzisa imininingwane yesakhiwo ezuzwe ekuhlolweni kwezigaba ezimbili, sethula i-algorithm yezinhlelo eguquguqukayo ukuze sithole ukusayinda okuphelele ekuhlolweni okujwayelekile kwezigaba eziningi ngokuphindaphinda emuva.

   
   

3. Sihlaziya umthelela wezingqinamba kumthumeli ngokusebenzisa izivivinyo ezinqunyiwe ngokuqhathanisa ukusebenza nesilungiselelo sakudala sokukholisa sase-Bayesia nalapho sisebenzisa izikimu zokusayina ezingcono kakhulu ze-Bayesian zokukholisa lapho umthumeli eboshiwe. Njengengxenye yalokhu, sihlinzeka ngesimo esanele sokuthi uma ukuhlola okulandelanayo kulingana nokukholisa kwe-Bayesia yakudala ngesikhala sesignali esingase sinwetshwe.

[1] Bheka Isigaba 5 kokuthi [23] ukuze uthole imininingwane.