 Kugera kuri iyo ngingo ibyemezo byoroshye, aho gutsinda byunvikana, aho ubuhanga bukuraho gushidikanya. Rwiyemezamirimo wese arota ubuhanga.  Ariko hariho ikiguzi cyihishe kubuhanga bwimbitse ntawe ubivuga - kimwe kigaragara cyane niko ugenda ugenda neza.  Nukwiga byinshi kubyerekeye kubaka ibigo, ibyemezo   kubona. Uko urushaho gusobanukirwa isoko ryawe, niko utumva   . biragoye neza  Kandi kubirwanya, uku gushidikanya gukura ntabwo ari ikimenyetso cyuko ukora ikintu kibi.  Nibimenyetso byerekana ko ugenda uhinduka muburyo bwubucuruzi bwubaka ibigo biramba.  Kuberako abantu benshi batekereza ko ubuhanga buzana ibisobanuro.   Baribeshya.  Ukwezi gushize, nicaranye nabashinze batatu mu ifunguro ryihariye i Miami. Guhuriza hamwe? Amadolari arenga miliyari 3. Ariko ntabwo bavugaga ibyo bagezeho. Ahubwo, basangiraga ikintu gishimishije:  mbega ukuntu bumva badashidikanya ubu kuruta igihe batangiriye.  Umwe muri bo yavuze ikintu cyambujije gukonja:   "Uko niga byinshi ku bijyanye no kubaka amasosiyete yubaka, ni ko ntagirira icyizere ku cyemezo cyose. Mu myaka itanu ishize, natekereje ko nzi byose. Ubu? Ndabona inzira igihumbi buri guhitamo bishobora kugenda nabi."   Icyitegererezo cyihishe mubikorwa byo hejuru  Ibi ntabwo bireba abashinze gusa. Iyi shusho igaragara ahantu hose iyo utangiye kuyishakisha:  Injeniyeri mukuru ufata igihe kinini cyo kohereza kode kuko barashobora kubona imanza zose.  Umushoramari w'inararibonye wumva adashidikanya kubyerekeye amasezerano kuko babonye uburyo ibintu bishobora kunanirwa.  Umuyobozi mukuru wumukambwe umara umwanya munini mubyemezo kuko basobanukiwe ningaruka mbi.  Ariko dore igituma ibi bigushimisha:  Uku kutamenya gushidikanya ntabwo ari amakosa mu iterambere ryawe. Nibintu byubuhanga nyabwo.  Tekereza ku rugendo rwawe:  Wibuke igihe ibyemezo byumvaga byoroshye?  Iyo ibisubizo bisa nkaho bigaragara?  Mugihe ushobora guhitamo vuba utabonye ingorane zose?  Ntabwo byari ukubera ko wari mwiza icyo gihe.  Byatewe nuko wari impumyi kubyo utazi.   Imibare yo Gushidikanya  Reka nkwereke impamvu ibi bibaho kurwego rwibanze.  Urwego rwose rwubuhanga wungutse ntabwo rwongera ubumenyi bushya -   impinduka ushobora kubona. Imikoranire ushobora kubona. bugwiza  Ibintu bigoye ushobora kubyumva.  Dore uko isenyuka:   Ubwenge bw'intangiriro:  Reba impinduka 5  Reba imikoranire 10-15  Umva ufite ikizere kuko igipimo gisa nkicungwa   Igitekerezo cyo hagati:  Reba impinduka 15  Reba imikoranire 50-100  Tangira kumva uburemere bwikibazo   Ukuri kw'impuguke:  Reba impinduka 50+  Ugomba gutekereza 1000+ ishobora gukorana  Sobanukirwa nurwego nyarwo rwo gushidikanya   Ariko dore aho bishimishije rwose ...  Mugihe wungutse ubumenyi nyabwo, ubwonko bwawe butezimbere ubushobozi bubiri kubiciro bitandukanye:  Ubushobozi bwawe bwo gukemura ibibazo  Ubushobozi bwawe bwo   ibibazo kubona  Iya kabiri? Irakura vuba.  Byihuse cyane.  Tekereza kuri ubu buryo:   Icyuho cyo Kumenya:  Kumyaka 2 muri: Urashobora kubona ibibazo 100 bishoboka ariko ugakemura 80  Kumyaka 5 muri: Urashobora kubona ibibazo 500 ariko ugakemura 300  Kumyaka 10 muri: Urashobora kubona ibibazo 1000+ ariko ugakemura 600    - imyumvire yawe igoye ikura vuba kuruta ubushobozi bwawe bwo kubikemura. Ibi birema icyo nise "Umutwaro w'inzobere"   Impamvu Abakora Hejuru Barwana Byinshi   Dore icyakora ibi cyane cyane ubugome kubakinnyi bakomeye:  Intsinzi yawe ishingiye kubikorwa bifatika, ariko ubuhanga bwawe bugaragaza neza impamvu ibintu byose bishobora kugenda nabi. Nukwiga byinshi, niko ibyemezo biremereye.  Tekereza uko bigenda uko wungutse ubumenyi nyabwo. Ubwa mbere, ukorana nibyo nise "ibyiringiro byintangiriro" - iyo leta nziza aho ibyemezo byumvikana neza kuko udashobora kubona ingorane zabo. Ubujiji bwawe buhinduka imbaraga zawe zidasanzwe.  Wimuka vuba neza kuko utazi icyashobora gucika.  Noneho hari ikintu gihinduka.  Mugihe ubumenyi bwawe bwimbitse, utangira kubona sisitemu aho gufata ibyemezo byihariye. Guhitamo kwose kwerekana ingaruka zayo ijana. Ibyakundaga gufata iminsi ubu bifata ibyumweru - ntabwo ari ukubera ko utinda, ahubwo ni ukubera ko ushobora kubona neza ibiri mu kaga.   Ibyiciro bitatu bisa nkibi:  Ubwa mbere haza   , aho uzi bihagije gukora cyane. Ibintu byose birasobanutse kuko icyerekezo cyawe kiracyoroshye. Icyiciro Icyizere  Noneho hitamo   , aho ubumenyi bwawe bwagutse byihuse bikwereka uko bishobora kugenda nabi. Icyizere cyawe kiragabanuka uko imyumvire yawe yiyongera. Buri cyemezo cyumva kiremereye kuko ushobora kubona ingaruka zacyo zose. Crisis Phase  Ariko niba usunitse, ugera kuri   . Aha niho ubuhanga buhinduka imbaraga. Wiga gukora ushidikanya aho kubikora nubwo. Gushidikanya kwawe kuva mumitwaro guhinduka urubanza ruhanitse. Phase yo Kwishyira hamwe  Kumenya kimwe gufata ibyemezo bikomeye nabyo bituma barushaho kuba beza.  Ukudashidikanya kwawe ntabwo ari intege nke - ni imyumvire yawe yahindutse yigaragaza.   Imbaraga Zihishe Mubidashidikanywaho  Abantu benshi biruka gushidikanya. Babona ko ari intege nke, nkikimenyetso batazi bihagije. Ariko dore icyahinduye byose: gushidikanya kwawe gukura ntabwo ari inenge - ni gihamya yubuhanga bwawe bwagutse.  Tekereza kuri ubu buryo:  Iyo utangiye ikintu icyo aricyo cyose, byanze bikunze bizahendutse. Ntabwo wabonye bihagije kunanirwa gushidikanya kubyemezo byawe. Ntabwo wigeze ureba ingamba zihagije zisenyuka kugirango ubaze ibyo utekereza. Icyizere cyawe kiva mubitekerezo byawe bigarukira.   Ariko rero hari ikintu gihinduka.  Mugihe ubuhanga bwawe bwimbitse, utangira kubona ibice abandi babuze. Icyemezo cyose kigaragaza ibibazo bishya. Ingamba zose zerekana intege nke zihishe. Icyasaga naho cyoroshye cyabaye ingorabahizi.  Niyo mpanvu abakora ibikorwa byindobanure bakunze kumvikana byibuze. Ntabwo bayobewe cyangwa bafite intege nke - bazi gusa ibyo abandi badashobora kubona.   Ubumenyi bwinzobere  Mu nyandiko yabo y'ingenzi ya 2009 "Conditions for Expertise Expertise" yasohotse muri psychologue w’umunyamerika, Daniel Kahneman na Gary Klein bize igihe ubushakashatsi bw’impuguke bushobora kwizerwa. Aho kwemeza gusa ko ubuhanga bwinshi buganisha ku byemezo byiza, basanze hari ikintu cyiza: ubuhanga butera imbere gusa mubidukikije bifite ibitekerezo bisobanutse n'amahirwe yo kwitoza.   Tekereza icyo ibi bivuze mu gufata ibyemezo:  Ubuhanga ntabwo ari ugukusanya ubumenyi gusa - ni ugutezimbere uburyo buhanitse bwo kumenyekanisha binyuze mumagambo menshi kandi bisobanutse neza. Iyo ibyo bintu bihari, abahanga barashobora gutunganya ibintu bigoye muburyo bushya abashya badashobora guhura.   Ibi bisobanurwa mubucuruzi:  Ubuhanga nyabwo ntibusobanura ibyemezo byoroshye - bivuze inzira nziza zo kugendana ibintu bigoye. Kahneman na Klein basanze abahanzi bitwaye neza atari abo bizeye, ariko abashobora kuzirikana ibintu byinshi birushanwe mugihe bagifata ingamba zihamye.   Ibi birasobanura ikintu gikomeye cyurugendo rwawe:  Gukura kwawe gushidikanya ntabwo ari inenge - ni ibisubizo bisanzwe byo guteza imbere ubumenyi nyabwo. Nukumenyekanisha kwawe kwimbitse, urabona byinshi bihinduka, amasano menshi, nibisubizo byinshi kuruta mbere hose.   Ukudashidikanya kwawe ntabwo ari umwanzi wawe. Ni inkombe yawe.  Ariko igituma uru rugendo rugora cyane nuko uko ubuhanga bwawe bugenda bwiyongera, utangira gutwara ibiro abandi badashobora no kubona:  Kunanirwa kwashize bihinduka isomo rigora ibyemezo bizaza.  Intsinzi yose irakwereka ibintu byinshi byagombaga kugenda neza.  Ubunararibonye bwose bwongeraho urundi rwego rwo gusuzuma.   Nukugerageza kwiruka mugihe utwaye igikapu kitagaragara kiremereye na buri ntambwe.  Ibi bitera ubwoko bwihariye bwigitutu:  Ikipe yawe irashaka ibisubizo bisobanutse, ariko urabona nuance itagira iherezo.  Abashoramari bawe bifuza ibyateganijwe, ariko urabona impinduka zitabarika.  Isoko ryawe rirashaka ibikorwa bifatika, ariko urabona biterwa cyane.  Kandi dore umugeri nyawe:  Nukomeza gutsinda, niko ibi birushaho gukomera.  Kubera iki?  Ibyemezo bikomeye  Igice kinini  Sisitemu nyinshi  Ingaruka nini   Ubwihindurize  Ariko hano niho bigenda bishimishije. Igihe kimwe, ikintu gihinduka:  Uhagarika kurwanya ingorane. Utangiye kuyikoresha.  Ukudashidikanya kwawe guhinduka igikoresho aho kuba umutwaro.   Ibi bibaho iyo ubimenye:  Kuba udashidikanya bituma ukora neza.  Kubona ibibazo byinshi bigufasha kubaka ibisubizo byiza.  Gusobanukirwa bigoye biganisha ku ngamba zoroshye.  Gushidikanya kwawe mubyukuri kumenyekanisha ubuhanga.   Iyo Gushidikanya bihinduka mububasha  Abantu benshi ntibigera bumva ibyabaye mugihe wungutse ubumenyi bwimbitse. Batekereza ko intego ari ugukuraho gushidikanya. Kugira ubumenyi cyane kuburyo gushidikanya bishira.   Barimo kureba inyuma.   Imbaraga zo Kudashidikanya  Ubuhanga nyabwo ntibukuraho gushidikanya - burabihindura. Kumenya kimwe kugutera guhagarara mbere yicyemezo nacyo kigufasha kubona amahirwe abandi babuze. Umuvuduko wawe gahoro ntabwo ari intege nke - ni ishingiro rya sisitemu igereranya.  Tekereza uburyo ibitekerezo byawe bigenda bihinduka uko ubuhanga bwiyongera:  Ubwa mbere haza   . Utangiye kubona imivugo mu kajagari. Isoko rihinduka kongorera mbere yuko bigaragara. Itsinda ryitsinda ryigaragaza mubimenyetso byoroshye abandi babuze rwose. kumenyekana  Noneho utezimbere   . Uhagarika gutekereza muburyo bworoshye hanyuma utangire kubona sisitemu zose. Buri cyemezo kigaragaza ingaruka zacyo. ubujyakuzimu  Urashushanya amakarita abandi badashobora no gutekereza.  Amaherezo hagaragara icyo nise   . Ntabwo wimuka gusa n'umuvuduko, ariko hamwe nibisobanuro. Igikorwa cyose cyerekana igipimo. Ihitamo ryose risiga umwanya wo kumenyera. gukora nuanced   Ukuri kw'imikorere ya Elite  Abakoresha beza ntibarwanya gushidikanya - barabikoresha. Ukudashidikanya kwabo guhinduka lens yerekana amahirwe. Kumenya ibintu bigoye biba inyungu zabo zifatika.  Niyo mpamvu ubuhanga nyabwo bukunze kumva nka paradox: Uko ubizi, ibibazo byinshi ufite. Uko ubyumva cyane, niko ushidikanya.  Ariko nibyo rwose nibyo biha agaciro.  Kuberako mugihe abandi bihutira guca imanza, urabona ishusho yuzuye. Mugihe abandi biruka byukuri, ugendana nubuhanga. Mugihe abandi bakurikiza formulaire, wimuka nuance.  Gushidikanya kwawe ntabwo ari intege nke zawe.  Nukwiyumvisha kwawe guhinduka kwigaragaza.   Inzira Imbere  Dore icyahinduye byose:  Mugihe ubonye ko kwiyongera kwawe gushidikanya atari intege nke - ni imyumvire yawe ihindagurika yigaragaza.   Ihinduka:  Uburyo ufata ibyemezo  Uburyo uyobora amakipe  Uburyo wubaka sisitemu  Uburyo uyobora ibintu bigoye  Kuberako dore ukuri kubyerekeye ubuhanga:  Ntabwo ari ukugira ibisubizo byose. Nukugira ubuhanga bwo kubaza ibibazo byiza.  Ntabwo ari ugushidikanya. Nukubasha nubwo udashidikanya.  Kandi ibyo bidashidikanywaho?  Ngiyo imbaraga zawe zidasanzwe.  Koresha.  Kugeza mu cyumweru gitaha,  Scott    Ubutaha urumva ko gushidikanya bigenda byinjira mubyemezo, ibuka: Ntabwo utakaza ikizere. Urimo kunguka ubuhanga. Itandukaniro rinini. PS

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