Is There an AI Threat to Blue-Collar Jobs?

Blue-collar jobs have already been impacted heavily by robotics and automation, neither of which require artificial intelligence. Now, recent AI innovations like ChatGPT seem poised to make white-collar jobs vulnerable, which were previously considered safe from automation. But will AI stop at white-collar positions, or will it threaten blue-collar jobs, as well?

Blue-Collar Jobs Most at Risk From AI

Most of the jobs generative AI can eliminate are white-collar roles. However, a few blue-collar fields could also be affected. Jobs that a robot can perform are at an especially high risk of being eliminated with AI integrations.

Retail

Sales and retail employees are already experiencing the impact of AI and automation in the job market. Over the past several years, more stores have replaced traditional checkout counters with automated self-service kiosks. Additionally, many people have shifted to online shopping, reducing the number of customers visiting physical storefronts.

Self-service checkout accounts for 55% of all transactions at brick-and-mortar grocery stores. Some small shops have no employees, only a few associates who come in to restock the shelves.

Unfortunately for people working in retail, most customer-facing roles will likely disappear in the near future. Restocking will likely become the only task requiring employees. AI could completely take over most checkout and customer service tasks.

Manufacturing

Automation has long been a part of the manufacturing industry, but AI could advance automation to the point of eliminating most hands-on jobs. Combining robotics and AI enables manufacturers to automate their assembly processes.

Shifting to an employee-free workplace lets manufacturers operate around the clock and significantly reduce payroll, insurance, and injury compensation expenses. Plus, AI and robotics can often deliver higher-quality products since they don’t encounter human error. There are clear financial benefits for a fully automated manufacturing environment.

AI will likely take over most assembly line jobs with the help of robotics. Most blue-collar positions in manufacturing will be technician roles, such as robot repair.

Agriculture and Food Processing

Farming is often not the first thing that comes to mind when people think of AI and robotics. However, there is huge potential for AI-assisted automation in the agriculture industry. Blue-collar jobs like food packaging and crop harvesting are often repetitive manual labor. These tasks are relatively easy to automate, especially now that AI can accurately recognize ripe or bruised fruit.

For example, apple orchards in America’s Northwestern states are starting to use AI-powered robots to pick apples. Some are flying drones that pick them from the air, while others are large robotic arms on a rolling base that drive through orchards. The robots use AI computer vision to identify ripe fruit and pluck apples from the trees with a robotic arm.

Farmers can completely automate their harvesting process with enough of these robots, eliminating thousands of blue-collar manual labor jobs. The same applies to food processing and packaging tasks, such as cleaning freshly harvested food. AI computer vision enables robots to perform virtually all food processing tasks, even with delicate foods like pastries and fruit.

Is AI Replacing Employees or Filling Empty Jobs?

It may sound alarming that AI is threatening blue-collar as well as white-collar jobs. However, is AI actually displacing human employees? It’s easy to imagine businesses firing people and replacing them with AI, but that may not be the reality of the situation.

Many industries face major labor shortages today, including manufacturing, retail, and agriculture. This hurts productivity and leads to higher rates of stress and injuries among understaffed teams. These shortages are only getting worse, too.

For instance, the National Association of Manufacturers estimates that the manufacturing industry will be short 2.1 million employees by 2030. Additionally, studies show that fully in-person jobs, such as in retail, have higher quit rates and lower employee satisfaction. Businesses have a hard time finding and keeping workers in these sectors.

There is no lack of open blue-collar jobs. The problem is finding enough people to fill those roles. Employers often turn to AI and automation when labor shortages continue for an extended period. In these cases, integrating AI can improve the employee experience by reducing the workload on understaffed teams.

Adapting to AI in the Workforce

Is it possible for AI and employees to coexist peacefully in the blue-collar job market? Some may be surprised to hear that AI can be a helpful addition to the workforce in several ways. It may not be replacing employees so much as shifting humans’ jobs.

One of the most common challenges in today’s workforce is a lack of skilled labor, specifically in blue-collar roles. Jobs are available, but not enough people have the technical skills to fill them. For example, there is a shortage of at least 70,000 skilled HVAC technicians, which analysts expect to worsen over the next decade.

AI can help employers adapt blue-collar roles to close the skills gap. For instance, it can speed training processes to help employees gain the necessary skills in less time. This benefits everyone since more advanced abilities result in higher pay for blue-collar workers.

Similarly, AI is creating more opportunities for blue-collar workers to move into higher-level jobs. AI is eliminating low-skill manual labor tasks, but that includes many positions people don’t typically enjoy anyway. The skills gap presents a great opportunity to reskill and upskill manual labor employees so they can graduate to more fulfilling, engaging careers.

It’s also worth considering that AI is only good at a narrow niche of tasks. Humans will always have the edge in three core areas: creativity, originality, and the ability to learn. Countless blue-collar jobs require those skills.

For instance, auto technicians need creativity to find the best possible solution to vehicles’ mechanical problems. Robotics technicians rely on their ability to learn to help them keep up with advancing technology. Landscapers exercise originality every day to create unique outdoor spaces.

AI can’t replicate these skills on a human level. Even with the help of robotics, there will always be blue-collar jobs that require people. While AI automates mundane manual labor, humans get to focus on creativity-centered tasks. The physical nature of blue-collar work also makes it much more resilient to automation than most white-collar jobs. These careers will be more secure as AI’s presence in the workplace grows.

Timeline for the Shift to AI in the Job Market

How rapidly will AI change the blue-collar job market? It has advanced rapidly over the past few years, but its impact on the workplace is developing a bit slower. Employers need time and money to invest in AI tools and learn how to use them. Therefore, the transition will happen gradually.

The first stage in most fields will be integrating AI tools and assistants. This is already occurring in many white-collar jobs. For example, software developers now use machine learning to automate many tasks, like idea generation or debugging. AI may start helping with employee training or managerial processes like shift scheduling in blue-collar fields.

This first stage will occur over the next three to five years. Meanwhile, manufacturing specifically will see an increase in physical automation. For example, AI will begin taking over quality control inspections with the help of computer vision. Most of these integrations will fill empty jobs rather than replace employees.

The shift to AI will take longer in some blue-collar fields than in others. For instance, manual labor in agriculture is highly threatened by AI, but the technology still needs much more development. As of 2023, agricultural employees are among the least exposed to AI in the United States.

Agriculture has very little advanced electronic equipment, so adding AI will take longer than in fields like manufacturing. Engineers must develop outdoor-ready robotics equipment as well as AI models suited for agriculture. It could take another five to 10 years before tasks like harvesting are viable for automation.

On the other end of the spectrum, retail jobs could begin seeing a decline due to AI within the next few years. Automation is already rapidly phasing out tasks like employee-serviced checkout lanes. The technology to automate retail is already present in the workplace, so these blue-collar jobs will experience the impact of AI soonest.

Working Alongside AI Successfully

It’s natural to be concerned about AI eliminating valuable jobs. Most blue-collar careers are at much lower risk of automation than white-collar jobs. However, AI poses a significant threat to manufacturing, retail, and agriculture careers. Luckily, it will mainly fill empty positions in these industries rather than displacing employees. AI can be a valuable assistant in many situations by reducing workloads and stress.