How to Navigate Crypto Secular Trends, Market Cycles, and Narratives?
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More and more people have access to the internet, are digitally native, and have at least heard about crypto. These will continue unless significant factors change.
However, this doesn’t mean that existing crypto projects will gain a broader user audience and all investors will be wealthy. Understanding secular trends is vital for anticipating markets’ evolution and identifying potential opportunities and challenges.
Always try to understand the real value of your financial assets. This will allow you to navigate between secular trends. Cryptocurrency – What do we exactly own? This depends on a specific coin or token, but for legitimate projects (we don’t have many), it is the promise of something.
Investing has many cyclical rules. The key to mastering this game is understanding market dynamics. The psychology behind investors' behavior is primarily greed and fear.
Traditional economies and profit cycles impact both digital and non-digital assets. To succeed in the digital market, we must understand the offline world. Even the best crypto analysis is worthless if we won’t consider traditional market dynamics.
Crypto is fast moving environment with a lot of developments and new narratives. All of these create tactical trends, which can last weeks to months. We should know them to decide whether we want to play them out.
Tactical trends are created in crypto by narratives. Some of them will stay, but most will disappear over time. A deal must have a purpose if it is to exist. Why don't other investors see it?
Most non-professional investors cannot do an outstanding job of predicting short-term phenomena such as narratives. However, inefficiencies, mispricing, misperceptions, and mistakes that others make are opportunities for superior performance in highly volatile markets like crypto. Investors must be on the right side of those mistakes to profit from tactical trends.
Knowing narratives is not enough to be successful in the crypto market. Other market participants need to play the same game. Your goal is to identify narratives before the catalysts.