Wei Ly

@weiking

Has the Bitcoin Price Bottomed?

Throughout all of this crypto Bear market I have seen numerous so called “experts” give their prediction on the price of Bitcoin.

The chart shows how ridiculously far off these people have been. Nobody can accurately predict the price of Bitcoin and if they try you should just not take that person seriously.

I am at the point now where if a so called expert gives a price prediction they automatically go in my shit talker basket. An expert that gives a price prediction on Bitcoin is IMO not an expert and should be dismissed.

In the current Bitcoin markets where exchange trading is so low any big sell or buy orders will instantly affect the price. And not just by a small margin either. Within a 15–30 min window the price can go 10% in either direction. How can you give a price prediction on something if it behaves this way? You can’t.

Some things they are currently rehashing to back up their arguments

  • Bakkt is coming
  • ETF approval is around the corner

It’s easy to just follow and say the same thing everyone else is saying but will those 2 things really affect the price of Bitcoin? I don’t really think so. For most of 2018 there has been a constant supply of good news for crypto and Blockchain but we have still seen a constant downwards pressure on crypto prices. Bitcoin no longer follows any rules relating to news. It goes where it wants to go now and no-one knows what it will do next. As I write this the price could just as go up or down 5–10% easily with no news.

My counter arguments:

Bakkt Is Coming

Is the so called crypto exchange being launched in January 2019 by ICE, the same people that own the NYSE going to bring about a Bull run? I doubt it. We know this is coming so it should already be priced in. Institutions are not just going to all of a sudden be able to access the Bitcoin markets. If an institution wants to buy Bitcoin now it already can.

Coinbase is already regulated, operates OTC desks and has custody solutions for institutions.

ETF Is Coming

There is a belief that a Bitcoin ETF will give traditional mom and dad investors in the US an easier on ramp experience for the trading of Bitcoin. It could be true that a positive Bitcoin ETF ruling by the SEC will allow more US investors to get into Bitcoin. However Bitcoin trading is not dominated by the US anymore.

Bitmex has a tradeable Bitcoin product with by far the largest daily volume. The past 24 hours its been over $3 Billion. The next biggest volume is at just under $400 million. And guess what? US citizens are banned from BitMEX trading. In reality the big Bitcoin trading volumes are occurring in the Asian markets such as Japan, Korea and OTC in China.

In Europe the 4th biggest traditional exchange based in Switzerland just launched a Bitcoin ETP which is similar to an ETF. What happened after that? We just saw the biggest drop in Bitcoin price the last couple of weeks that’s what happened!

Unfortunately a US based ETF for Bitcoin is just not going to suddenly trigger demand for Bitcoin. You can just as easily buy Bitcoin with your Credit Card from Coinbase.

Has Bitcoin Bottomed?

At the height of Bitcoin mania the price was trading at 20% premium in Korean markets. Here in Hong Kong it was at a regular 4% premium. When we had FOMO driven by constant publicity over price did we see mass hysteria and demand for Bitcoin. Forget the underlying technology being improved. With Bitcoin, Price drives Price.

The next Bull run will occur only if there is FOMO. And to create FOMO we need to see:

  1. Increased trading Volumes. Hardly anyone is trading Bitcoin currently besides trading Bots. We need big Whale traders to come in to boost volume and this can happen at any given second.
  2. Fuel to the fire. When traditional news Media decides it is time to switch the narrative for Bitcoin and constantly gives you positive price updates for Bitcoin.

So ask yourself have we seen the above 2 happen yet?

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