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The So-Called Science of Sociology

2020 has been a hotbed of political and social debates. Curious, I got out my python script, scraped some academic data and set out to find what the Sociologists are talking about in September 2020. From coronavirus to lockdown, Black Lives Matters, US presidential elections, the politicisation of public health, trans rights, colonial guilt and climate change denial, the list is undeniably important and keeps growing. Trending in Sociology: Illustration by author. What follows are four topics based on the most popular papers that sociologists have been reading on the academic social network, Mendeley. If you want more details on how I collected and used the data, I’ve added a section at the end. Enjoy! 1. Race, Police Killings and Black Protest Strategies The risk of being killed by police in the United States Trending Paper: Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age Researchers wanted to find out what was the risk of being killed by police in the United States based on your social group and age. Academics reviewed data from police-involved killings in the United States from 2013 to 2018 on a sample size of 100,000 people. What they found was very disturbing. The study showed black men were at the highest risk of death, with a 1 in 1000 chance of being killed by police in their lifetime. Peak risk occurred between the ages of 20 to 35 for all groups. This would mean, today, the leading cause of death for men of colour in the USA is secondary to police use of force. Because of its prevalence, the authors call for it to be declared a public health issue. The advantages and disadvantages of violent protest Trending Paper: Agenda Seeding- How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion An eye for an eye may be moral, but this research suggests it may not be strategic. Researchers looked to the recent history of the black-led protests between 1960 and 1972 to evaluate which tactics had the most impact, and which made things worse. Non-violent protests, it appears, were most effective when met with state or vigilante repression. It even had an impact on how people would votes in presidential elections, with the democrats seeing an increase of 1.6–2.5%. Protestor initiated violence; on the other hand, had a very different effect. It appears likely that the violent protests of the ’60s resulted in a 1.5–7.9% shift among whites towards Republicans. 2. COVID-19 and rethinking tourism — sustainability is not the answer Trending Papers: Post COVID-19 ecological and social reset- moving away from capitalist growth Socialising tourism for social and ecological justice after COVID-19 (2020) COVID-19, indigenous peoples and tourism: a view from New Zealand COVID-19- from temporary de-globalisation to a re-discovery of tourism Unsurprisingly, most of the worlds hospitality and tourism services have shut down due to COVID-19. Multiple trending papers have declared this as a rare opportunity to hit the reset button on the tourism and rethink how we can be more ‘responsible’. When we go on vacation, we are complicit in directly or indirectly taking advantage of a group of poorly paid and protected people. Many papers call for a strategy of ‘community-centred tourism’ which redefines and reorganises tourism based on the rights and interests of local communities/local people. Independently, sustainable tourism is not the answer. 3. Why changing your mind is hard and the influence of mass opinion The difficulty in changing our dispositions Trending Paper: Measuring Stability and Change in Personal Culture Using Panel Data (2020) When it comes to individuals changing their minds, it turns out there are two types of people: Those who actively update their beliefs when new information is presented, and those who never change their dispositions after a young age. Sadly, it seems the latter is more prevalent. After early socialisation, there is little evidence that most U.S. adults changed their beliefs or practices. The biggest accelerator for change? Generational turnover. Disappointing… Increasing polarisation in Society Trending Papers: Pluralistic Collapse- The “Oil Spill” Model of Mass Opinion Polarization The science of fake news- Addressing fake news requires a multidisciplinary effort Societal mass polarisation is accelerating. In turn, this is wreaking havoc on our ability to find mutual agreement with those that hold a different viewpoint. Researchers conducted an experiment to explore this. A randomly assigned a sample of Twitter users were asked to follow a “bot” account that would share content from the opposing side of the political divide. Rather than decreasing polarization, they found that exposure to opposing viewpoints pushed people even further toward their own side. Similarly, individuals tend not to question the credibility of information when it aligned with our beliefs with the values. 4. How Politics limits Environmental Activism Trending Papers: Political power and renewable energy futures A critical review Environmental conflicts and defenders — A global overview These last two papers discuss a single idea: communities should be able to govern how private organisations and government use their environments. Both ideas make the argument for the means to control their environments to improve their freedoms. For example, if a group can govern how its energy is produced (locally rather than centrally/renewable vs non-renewable), this strengthens a community through the creation of new infrastructure and local economic opportunity. It delivers what they call an ‘Energy Democracy’, and allows for new types of negotiation power with speaking with a central body like government. BONUS: How did I find these papers? Typically to find out how influential something is within the academic community, you would use a metric like the citation number. Although citations are a reasonably good indicator of how impactful a paper might be, they can take anywhere from months to years to appear. It’s for this reason I am using the Mendeley Reader number as an indicator. It indicates how many academics have added a specific paper to their library. Full disclosure : I work as a product manager at Mendeley, so I am biased towards using the Mendeley metric. In theory, something like the number of tweets or blog posts for a given paper could also work. I recorded this number every month and was able to filter it down by academic discipline. After this, I plotted the reader data on a time series and calculated a score for the linear gradient and exponent. This score would tell me if readership was increasing or decreasing over time, aka — What’s trending? If you think you would find access to this data interesting, please let me know. Also published here .

What Sociologists Are Saying About 2020's Myriad Political Movements

And that’s a relief! Note: Scroll to the bottom to get a copy of my personal notes and takeaways from SocialBoom! They’re typed just for you :) I just got back from , which turned out to be a pretty dope meetup of some of the best minds across marketing. SocialBoom 2017 The best part was probably going with awesome people from the team :) I had a blast spending it with my talented and passionate friends, and I’m thankful for the opportunity to have joined you! Symphony Check ’em out, they don’t bite: https://symphonyagency.com/ Although SocialBoom was billed as being a social media conference, I think that did a great job packing it full of insightful speakers. Kim Garst cross-disciplinary Instead of just being back to back social tactics, SocialBoom left me with plenty of insight for life, business — and yes, marketing. For example, Kim is a pretty dyed in the wool social specialist and most of her value was dropping some tactical knowledge about the newer features of Facebook, Instagram, and livestreaming as a whole. But Kim mixed it up by also bringing in cool and oriented speakers — like . Nicole is a fabulous, badass income strategist who dropped a of knowledge about business development, and email marketing during her time on stage. business development conversion Nicole Walters TON By hearing the “coming up story” of a of people in different industries like and on and on it opened my eyes to something incredibly important. variety coaching, tech, speaking, consulting, Something even more important than the individual tactics, I think. Not everyone is a speaker, author, web developer, accountant, lawyer, or EVERYTHING. Nobody does it alone. So I definitely enjoyed my time at SocialBoom and got a ton of value from it. With that being said… All of us are marketers, and There were definitely a few straight up sales presentations there. we KNOW when we’re being sold… I don’t mean the speaker promoted an offer at the end of a speech you took several pages of notes on — that’s fair enough. I mean you’re sitting through a 1 hour sales presentation that goes over time… But is a learning opportunity. I was able to get something very valuable from this (HARD) sales pitch. even this The presentation was by a foreign-based (American owned) outsourcing operation, kind of like the The firm that presented at SB17 pairs business owners up with virtual assistants who are based in the Philippines. one Chris Ducker has. The extent of the “tactics” was essentially … “Here are all the things we’ll do for you when you’re a customer” was when the speaker pulled up his HR manager on Skype, and basically did a live demo of their product. But the cool part As much as I didn’t enjoy being “sold”, seeing the humans on the other side and hearing their story was pretty neat. And it taught me an important lesson: Nobody does it alone. Sometimes the person probably run their entire business by themselves. even if it seems like this is a one man show from the outside, does not Some types of help are more visible than others, and sometimes you might be comparing where you “should be” (on your own) to some“one” who is further ahead of you — but they may not have help. visible Understanding the different types of help that entrepreneurs get is incredibly important. Having “a team” a fancy office with employees. doesn’t always look like It’s important, so that you can set realistic expectations for yourself. Mainly so you can take the pressure off. It’s helpful to look to other business figures for ideas, but a lot of the time this “viewing” can turn into pressure that you’re putting on yourself. “Why aren’t I there yet? She has a 6 figure business, shouldn’t I too by now?” Understand that you’re probably not seeing but if you’re comparing yourself to them in an “apples to apples” way you can develop their whole picture, still stress, anxiety, depression, and burnout. “If you want this, you need to understand that there’s a LOT of stuff that people are not talking about. Nobody in my tech/startup world is talking about the suicides when kids fail. This is happening every day.” — Gary Vaynerchuk _This keynote I gave at CUNY City College this past week was one for the books. I absolutely loved talking to these kids…_pca.st A Keynote: CUNY City College - The GaryVee Audio Experience Mental health is discussed enough in the business space. not “The Media” loves to run story after story on the winners, but the winners are just the tip of the iceberg. What gets forgotten, or never printed, are the losses we’ve had to suicide. Even when from mental health distress, it’s hardly covered — and overtaken by the avalanche of IPOs and funding rounds of the next day. literal famous people take their own lives quickly _Computer activist Aaron H. Swartz committed suicide in New York City yesterday, Jan. 11, according to his uncle…_tech.mit.edu Aaron Swartz commits suicide - The Tech Second lesson that goes hand in hand with this, Nicole Walters reminded me that everyone is a human. Maybe you have a hardcore business crush on someone (or a few people 😅). Sometimes when your brain is doing that it can at the same time though — the distance between you and them. freak you out a little bit I definitely get it. By remembering that everyone, no matter how awesome they seem, is a human you can steer yourself through the moments when you don’t feel good enough. Remember that no single person possess the skills, and time to execute every business task perfectly. Business owners use tools like virtual assistants, employees, interns, Fiverr, professional services (like marketing agencies), and freelancers to and focus on doing what they do best. delegate their weaknesses, During a panel discussion, Nicole mentioned that there is a misconception about revenue. When you hear that someone makes 7 figures like Nicole, maybe you think that she has ONE million dollar stream of revenue. That’s how it can look from the outside anyway. But it’s mostly a myth. Does Nicole really get a million dollars from one source of revenue? NO! Her 7 figure business is a combo of her speaking, her products, her inner circle, her affiliate business — together to make her whole 7 figure business. all of these come I know that that revenue streams need to be 6 figures to add up to 7 figures. And maybe you’re freaking out right now. Like “Hey whoa Jamie you lost me, I’m definitely never going to be in a place where that’s relevant to me — flattering you think I’ll have a 7 figure business though, but uh…” Nicole’s example numbers might freak you out, boss but that’s not the point. You can look at building your personal income in the same way to set realistic expectations. Maybe one day you hope to earn $X00,000’s instead. It works the same way. Building ONE $100,000+ revenue stream can feel pretty scary. Maybe it even seems impossible. Instead, you can put together a mix of revenue streams that total your goal revenue. Gary Vaynerchuk did the math in Crush It and Thank You Economy: is big enough to build a hustle of $10,000-$50,000/year with dedicated work. basically every niche Even if your passion is something very obscure, with a small community like chicken farming. ( ) Yes, it’s been done. _Henny & Roo is the first and only subscription box for backyard chicken keepers. Each month, you'll receive treats…_hennyandroo.cratejoy.com Henny & Roo Home Instead of thinking to yourself “WOW Nicole has this 7 figure business, and I’ve got to grow to her level in the first year or two??”, doesn’t this seem like a much more reasonable approach? Figure out where you want to be at the top of your career. Work backwards. Try creating new revenue streams. If it seems like the revenue stream will be small, you’re working on it for 3 months and it’s not made $10,000 — understand that maybe that isn’t the strongest pain point for your market. Keep exploring, when you identify the revenue stream won’t grow to a size you need — attempt a new variation or idea. If you go into creating products to serve, and to give back value — the rest is trial and error, and learning how to identify the losers and move on from them. If you’re working on it for a year and it doesn’t make $10,000 it’s definitely a loser. Otherwise, what constitutes a winner and a loser will depend on your goals. If you want to make $100,000, you’re looking for 2, 3 or 4 sources of income that total around $25,000-$50,000. How can you give to people in 3 or 4 ways? a part time job’s worth of value Maybe you’ll get lucky, or you have an audience whose pains you know well and your first try will get that revenue stream to $20k by June. If that’s the case, you can estimate it will be a $40ker. You’re most of the way there, you also have a profitable market you can probably assist further. Look, even Kim Garst started off making — just enough extra cash to cover her car payment. only a few hundred bucks per month It’s taken her 5 years at least to build Boom! Social to where it is now. It’s so important to NOT freak out, and to set realistic expectations because the truth is that a fully functioning million dollar business definitely does not pop out magically overnight. You’ve gotta be in it for the longggggg haul, baby! but I wanted to hit on it again. It’s important to keep your focus on because business people are burnt out, stressed, and suffering high rates of depression — We’ve talked about mental health and business before, so and we’re just not talking about it. If you feel like this is you, know that you’re normal. please The worst part about the silence, is that you feel like a weirdo — and you absolutely shouldn’t. If you’re struggling with burnout and depression please know that we take you seriously. No one will think you’re weak for reaching out. I encourage you to grab a trusted mentor, friend, stranger, your mom, your dog, your girlfriend — even a therapist if you don’t feel close to anyone but I implore you to please talk to someone about how you’re feeling. Especially if you’ve thought of taking your own life. The first step to feeling better is going to be to not bottle it up. Keep in mind that when you feel really lousy, you might feel like you want to “pull away” from people. Going out to dinner, or having a chat with your friend isn’t relaxing anymore — it’s stressful. If you’re feeling like this, you should know that the times you want to pull away are often when you need to move towards someone the most. What you’re feeling is normal. It’s scary. But nobody does it by themselves. You’re only human. I’d like to leave you with this final thought on “invisible help” from a recent : #AskPat episode “Reinvesting in my business, I’ve found to be really important lately. I used to try and see how little I could spend on my business to keep it growing, but I realize as I’ve shifted from scrappy entrepreneur to now CEO of my company, I’ve found that when you invest in the right things in your business — THAT can help you exponentially grow. I’ve been able to invest a lot of my profits from my business back into my business in several different ways like hiring a team (to) edit my podcasts, show notes, publish on Wordpress. All of those things I did myself, and now I have other people do them for me so I can focus more on the bigger level things, and the things only I can do.” — Pat Flynn _Today's question comes from Jackie who wants some advice on reinvesting her profits in her business. Find Jackie's…_pca.st AP 0873: What Do You Do with Your Profits? Reinvest in Your Business? SEO? Hiring? - AskPat: Your… Click here to get my notes from SocialBoom :) If you enjoyed reading, please spread the word by hitting the ❤ button! Please share on Facebook, or Twitter if you find the article valuable :) ^ Add your email to this form if you want actionable business and marketing content emailed to you weekly :)

What SocialBoom 2017 Taught Me About Mental Health: NO ONE Does it Alone.

Inspired by: shurkin_son Why do campus maps and zoo guides look so similar? Like each faculty building is a different animal enclosure? If the analogy works for you, I wonder what kind of animals venture capital and sociology are? Can they get along? As a sociology graduate student wanting to study venture capitalism as a field of research, I need help finding the sociologist’s place in the dragon den of venture capital! And just like first day on campus, I’m lost and I can’t find my way. university Does anyone care to lend me a hand? Let me frame it better. Big hairy questions like, how does it affect society and will venture capitalism ever alleviate poverty are a bit out of reach. Think more narrow and focused, such as: What societal factors lead to entrepreneurial success or failure? How does a certain public policy influence early investment? startup Or, what are the social dynamics of the investor/investee relationship? What do you think? Cast your vote for a topic for my research? Some suggestions so far: Appendix: What is Sociology anyway? By posting this on Medium I’m bound to reach a few people in the VC, entrepreneurial, startup space. But — and this is just me speculating here — I don’t think these guys even know what sociology is! So for a short summary: Sociology wants to know how society works. What is it’s logic? Sociology considers history, social dynamics and the functions of institutions to explain and understand what makes society tick. The sociologist is interested in studying, “social phenomena”. I know that just send a trickle down your spine, didn’t it? Anyway, sociology would basically look at the phenomenon of venture capitalism as a product of society and think about the relationships between venture capital and society at large. Make any sense? So, what I’m asking the lovely Medium community, is this: wait for it… What aspect of venture capitalism can sociology study? More specifically what must I study? I’d really appreciate any kind of input. When the research is complete, I’d love to share my findings with you. So please Medium community! Throw me a bone would ya?

Can Venture Capital and Sociology Get Along? If So, Where is the Fit?

The Sociology of Hackathons

A new podcast just dropped with Jim Keyes, CEO of both 7/11 and Blockbuster. I’ll break down his thoughts on fear and education. https://youtu.be/8ZoWQcnQSbc?embedable=true If you want to listen to the full podcast, listen on successstorypodcast.com or on YouTube. Remember Blockbuster? The video rental giant that seemed invincible, until it wasn't? What about 7-Eleven?  You know… those ubiquitous convenience stores slinging Slurpees and questionable hot dogs. Hold on a minute… these aren't exactly hotbeds of innovation, right?  Yet, here's the twist: the former CEO of BOTH these companies, Jim Keyes, has some seriously profound wisdom that every single one of us needs to hear. Jim, recently on the Success Story podcast, dropped a bombshell of a statement: "The antidote to fear is education." It seems obvious, but is it really? Let's break this thing down… The Disease of Fear Think about a scary moment.  Maybe a job interview, making a big decision, or a moment of public speaking. That pit in your stomach, those racing thoughts, the desire to just RUN? That's fear working its magic on you. Keyes explains what happens on a deeper level. Fear shuts down our higher-level thinking. It triggers that primal "fight or flight" response. We can't focus, we overreact, and we make terrible choices. This doesn't just happen at an individual level; it happens to entire societies.  Fear breeds anger, misunderstanding, conflict…all those things we desperately need less of. The Cure: A Different Kind of Classroom "Knowledge is the light you turn on, and you discover there's really nothing to be afraid of." Keyes says it with such conviction, but what does it really mean? Education isn't just about book smarts.  Don't get me wrong, IQ is valuable, but it's a tiny piece of the puzzle. Jim talks about two other critical ingredients: Emotional intelligence (EQ): Being aware of your emotions, understanding their impact, and managing them for better outcomes.
Character Quotient (CQ): This is about things like integrity, humility, and compassion. Our core values and how they shape our actions. Imagine a person with a high IQ but zero EQ and CQ.  That's a recipe for disaster. True wisdom, the kind that creates flourishing individuals and societies, needs all three.  This is the education Keyes is championing – an education of the mind and the heart. Alright, enough theory, right? Let's get to some examples... Remember the fear we talked about? Keyes isn't saying it magically goes away. But with education, we reframe it. Instead of a monster under the bed, it becomes a puzzle to solve, a challenge to overcome. Think about 7-Eleven.  Convenience stores aren't sexy. So, how did it become this massive success? Keyes saw fear driving huge companies to ignore a whole segment of the market. Busy people needed essentials at odd hours, and no one was serving them.  That's an opportunity born from addressing an overlooked fear. But what about Blockbuster, then? The video giant that, well, kind of exploded. Fear played a role here too. Fear of change, of the unknown. They saw Netflix coming, but instead of pivoting and embracing streaming, they doubled down on their outdated model. See the difference? Knowledge gives you options. If 7-Eleven had stayed scared of an unproven customer base, we'd never have those 2 a.m. snack runs. If Blockbuster had understood the shifting tides, they might still be here. It's Not Just About Business This "fear vs. knowledge" battleground is everywhere. People afraid of immigrants, of technology, of "the other."  Our society can feel like a minefield because so many are acting from a place of fear instead of understanding. Jim Keyes believes education is the solution, not  "feel good" slogans.  Understanding history, economics, sociology – these things dismantle the scary stories that keep us stuck. But Here's the Tough Pill to Swallow... Education, the real kind, is hard work. It takes effort and time. It's not passive. It challenges you to truly think, not just adopt a set of talking points.  We're in an age where instant gratification is king. That's the enemy of this kind of learning. Jim isn't talking about formal schooling only either. He's a huge proponent of lifelong learning. Reading, questioning, seeking out those who are different (those are often the best teachers!).  He compares it to aviation: You don't get a pilot's license and call it a day. It's a "license to learn" forever. I know you're probably thinking, ok, but what do I DO with this knowledge? That's a fair question, and here's where things get REALLY interesting… Fearless Opportunity Here's where Jim Keyes gets even more counterintuitive. He argues that disruptive change, the kind that terrifies most people, is where the true opportunities lie. Think about it – those who understand and harness something like AI, while others run away screaming, are the ones positioned to create miracles. This mindset shift is HUGE. Instead of seeing uncertainty as a threat, we see it as fertile ground. Think back throughout history: after war – rebirth. After economic collapse – new industries rise. It's not always pretty, but progress follows in the wake of destruction. This isn't some insensitive cheerleading though. There's a compassionate side to Jim's philosophy. When people's deepest fears are addressed through knowledge, we build better societies. Think poverty, crime, prejudice – these things fester in ignorance. The Challenge to You (and Me) Jim Keyes isn't saying we all need to become rocket scientists.  But there's a level of deliberate, focused learning we need to adopt.  Here's a few questions to get you started: Where are your fear-based blind spots? Do you automatically distrust certain technologies, cultures, or ideas?
What are you avoiding learning about? There's usually gold to be found in the things we find most difficult!
Who challenges your thinking? Do you surround yourself with people who simply echo your existing beliefs? That's an intellectual death trap. This isn't about being the smartest or most "woke" person in the room.  It's about cultivating a relentless curiosity and courage to venture outside your comfort zone. It's hard, but it's the ONLY way we evolve as individuals and as a society. A Final Note from Jim Jim Keyes isn't an inexperienced guy. He's seen decades of economic booms and busts, societal shifts, the birth and death of whole industries. His confidence in education comes from hard-won experience. I think that's important to remember. The path out of fear isn't a quick-fix, but it's the ONLY path that leads somewhere worth going. If you want to listen to the full podcast, listen on successstorypodcast.com or on YouTube. A new podcast just dropped with Jim Keyes, CEO of both 7/11 and Blockbuster. I’ll break down his thoughts on fear and education. https://youtu.be/8ZoWQcnQSbc?embedable=true https://youtu.be/8ZoWQcnQSbc?embedable=true If you want to listen to the full podcast, listen on successstorypodcast.com or on YouTube . successstorypodcast.com successstorypodcast.com YouTube YouTube Remember Blockbuster? The video rental giant that seemed invincible, until it wasn't? What about 7-Eleven?  You know… those ubiquitous convenience stores slinging Slurpees and questionable hot dogs. Hold on a minute… these aren't exactly hotbeds of innovation, right?  Yet, here's the twist: the former CEO of BOTH these companies, Jim Keyes, has some seriously profound wisdom that every single one of us needs to hear. Jim, recently on the Success Story podcast, dropped a bombshell of a statement: "The antidote to fear is education." It seems obvious, but is it really? Let's break this thing down… The Disease of Fear The Disease of Fear Think about a scary moment.  Maybe a job interview, making a big decision, or a moment of public speaking. That pit in your stomach, those racing thoughts, the desire to just RUN? That's fear working its magic on you. Keyes explains what happens on a deeper level. Fear shuts down our higher-level thinking. It triggers that primal "fight or flight" response. We can't focus, we overreact, and we make terrible choices. This doesn't just happen at an individual level; it happens to entire societies.  Fear breeds anger, misunderstanding, conflict…all those things we desperately need less of. The Cure: A Different Kind of Classroom The Cure: A Different Kind of Classroom "Knowledge is the light you turn on, and you discover there's really nothing to be afraid of." Keyes says it with such conviction, but what does it really mean? Education isn't just about book smarts.  Don't get me wrong, IQ is valuable, but it's a tiny piece of the puzzle. Jim talks about two other critical ingredients: Emotional intelligence (EQ): Being aware of your emotions, understanding their impact, and managing them for better outcomes. Character Quotient (CQ): This is about things like integrity, humility, and compassion. Our core values and how they shape our actions. Emotional intelligence (EQ): Being aware of your emotions, understanding their impact, and managing them for better outcomes. Emotional intelligence (EQ): Character Quotient (CQ): This is about things like integrity, humility, and compassion. Our core values and how they shape our actions. Character Quotient (CQ): Imagine a person with a high IQ but zero EQ and CQ.  That's a recipe for disaster. True wisdom, the kind that creates flourishing individuals and societies, needs all three.  This is the education Keyes is championing – an education of the mind and the heart. and Alright, enough theory, right? Let's get to some examples... Alright, enough theory, right? Let's get to some examples... Remember the fear we talked about? Keyes isn't saying it magically goes away. But with education, we reframe it. Instead of a monster under the bed, it becomes a puzzle to solve, a challenge to overcome. reframe Think about 7-Eleven.  Convenience stores aren't sexy. So, how did it become this massive success? Keyes saw fear driving huge companies to ignore a whole segment of the market. Busy people needed essentials at odd hours, and no one was serving them.  That's an opportunity born from addressing an overlooked fear. But what about Blockbuster, then? The video giant that, well, kind of exploded. Fear played a role here too. Fear of change, of the unknown. They saw Netflix coming, but instead of pivoting and embracing streaming, they doubled down on their outdated model. See the difference? Knowledge gives you options. If 7-Eleven had stayed scared of an unproven customer base, we'd never have those 2 a.m. snack runs. If Blockbuster had understood the shifting tides, they might still be here. It's Not Just About Business It's Not Just About Business This "fear vs. knowledge" battleground is everywhere. People afraid of immigrants, of technology, of "the other."  Our society can feel like a minefield because so many are acting from a place of fear instead of understanding. Jim Keyes believes education is the solution, not  "feel good" slogans.  Understanding history, economics, sociology – these things dismantle the scary stories that keep us stuck. But Here's the Tough Pill to Swallow... But Here's the Tough Pill to Swallow... Education, the real kind, is hard work. It takes effort and time. It's not passive. It challenges you to truly think, not just adopt a set of talking points.  We're in an age where instant gratification is king. That's the enemy of this kind of learning. Jim isn't talking about formal schooling only either. He's a huge proponent of lifelong learning. Reading, questioning, seeking out those who are different (those are often the best teachers!).  He compares it to aviation: You don't get a pilot's license and call it a day. It's a "license to learn" forever. I know you're probably thinking, ok, but what do I DO with this knowledge? That's a fair question, and here's where things get REALLY interesting… Fearless Opportunity Fearless Opportunity Here's where Jim Keyes gets even more counterintuitive. He argues that disruptive change, the kind that terrifies most people, is where the true opportunities lie. Think about it – those who understand and harness something like AI, while others run away screaming, are the ones positioned to create miracles. This mindset shift is HUGE. Instead of seeing uncertainty as a threat, we see it as fertile ground. Think back throughout history: after war – rebirth. After economic collapse – new industries rise. It's not always pretty, but progress follows in the wake of destruction. This isn't some insensitive cheerleading though. There's a compassionate side to Jim's philosophy. When people's deepest fears are addressed through knowledge, we build better societies. Think poverty, crime, prejudice – these things fester in ignorance. The Challenge to You (and Me) The Challenge to You (and Me) Jim Keyes isn't saying we all need to become rocket scientists.  But there's a level of deliberate, focused learning we need to adopt.  Here's a few questions to get you started: Where are your fear-based blind spots? Do you automatically distrust certain technologies, cultures, or ideas? What are you avoiding learning about? There's usually gold to be found in the things we find most difficult! Who challenges your thinking? Do you surround yourself with people who simply echo your existing beliefs? That's an intellectual death trap. Where are your fear-based blind spots? Do you automatically distrust certain technologies, cultures, or ideas? Where are your fear-based blind spots? What are you avoiding learning about? There's usually gold to be found in the things we find most difficult! What are you avoiding learning about? Who challenges your thinking? Do you surround yourself with people who simply echo your existing beliefs? That's an intellectual death trap. Who challenges your thinking? This isn't about being the smartest or most "woke" person in the room.  It's about cultivating a relentless curiosity and courage to venture outside your comfort zone. It's hard, but it's the ONLY way we evolve as individuals and as a society. A Final Note from Jim A Final Note from Jim Jim Keyes isn't an inexperienced guy. He's seen decades of economic booms and busts, societal shifts, the birth and death of whole industries. His confidence in education comes from hard-won experience. I think that's important to remember. The path out of fear isn't a quick-fix, but it's the ONLY path that leads somewhere worth going. If you want to listen to the full podcast, listen on successstorypodcast.com or on YouTube. If you want to listen to the full podcast, listen on successstorypodcast.com or on YouTube . successstorypodcast.com successstorypodcast.com YouTube YouTube

Education is the Boon to Fear — Insights from 7/11 & Blockbuster CEO Jim Keyes

শিক্ষাই ভয়ের বর - 7/11 এবং ব্লকবাস্টারের সিইও জিম কীসের অন্তর্দৃষ্টি

Bildung ist der Segen gegen die Angst – Einblicke von 7/11- und Blockbuster-CEO Jim Keyes

La educación es la bendición del miedo: ideas del 11 de julio y el director ejecutivo de Blockbuster, Jim Keyes

L'éducation est une aubaine pour la peur – Aperçus du 11 septembre et du PDG de Blockbuster, Jim Keyes

शिक्षा भय का वरदान है - 7/11 और ब्लॉकबस्टर के सीईओ जिम कीज़ की अंतर्दृष्टि

教育は恐怖を和らげる — 7/11 とブロックバスターの CEO ジム・キーズ氏の洞察

교육은 두려움에 도움이 됩니다 — 7/11 및 블록버스터 CEO Jim Keyes의 통찰

A educação é a dádiva do medo - Insights de 11/07 e Jim Keyes, CEO da Blockbuster

Образование — благо для страха: выводы 11 июля и генерального директора Blockbuster Джима Кейса

Eğitim Korkulması Gereken Bir Nimettir — 11 Eylül ve Gişe Rekortmeni CEO'su Jim Keyes'ten İçgörüler

Giáo dục là nguồn gốc của sự sợ hãi — Thông tin chi tiết từ vụ 11/7 & Giám đốc điều hành của Blockbuster Jim Keyes

教育是恐惧的福音——7/11 和 Blockbuster 首席执行官 Jim Keyes 的见解

Cypherpunks Write Code: The Mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto

সাইফারপাঙ্কস কোড লিখুন: রহস্যময় সাতোশি নাকামোটো

Cypherpunks schreiben Code: Der mysteriöse Satoshi Nakamoto

Código de escritura de Cypherpunks: El misterioso Satoshi Nakamoto

Cypherpunks écrit du code : le mystérieux Satoshi Nakamoto

साइफरपंक्स कोड लिखें: रहस्यमय सातोशी नाकामोतो

サイファーパンクがコードを書く: 謎のサトシ・ナカモト

사이퍼펑크의 코드 작성: 신비한 나카모토 사토시

Cypherpunks escrevem código: o misterioso Satoshi Nakamoto

Шифропанки пишут код: загадочный Сатоши Накамото

Şifrepunklar Kod Yazıyor: Gizemli Satoshi Nakamoto

Cypherpunks viết mã: Satoshi Nakamoto bí ẩn

密码朋克编写代码：神秘的中本聪

Authors:
(1) Jonathan H. Rystrøm. Table of Links Abstract and Introduction Previous Literature Methods and Data Results Discussions Conclusions and References A. Validation of Assumptions B. Other Models C. Pre-processing steps Abstract Recommender systems can be a helpful tool for recommending content but they can also influence users’ preferences. One sociological theory for this influence is that companies are incentivised to influence preferences to make users easier to predict and thus more profitable by making it harder to change preferences. This paper seeks to test that theory empirically. We use Barrier-to-Exit, a metric for how difficult it is for users to change preferences, to analyse a large dataset of Amazon Book Ratings from 1998 to 2018. We focus the analysis on users who have changed preferences according to Barrier-to-Exit. To assess the growth of Barrier-to-Exit over time, we developed a linear mixed-effects model with crossed random effects for users and categories. Our findings indicate a highly significant growth of Barrier-to-Exit over time, suggesting that it has become more difficult for the analysed subset of users to change their preferences. However, it should be noted that these findings come with several statistical and methodological caveats including sample bias and construct validity issues related to Barrier-to-Exit. We discuss the strengths and limitations of our approach and its implications. Additionally, we highlight the challenges of creating context-sensitive and generalisable measures for complex socio-technical concepts such as ”difficulty to change preferences.” We conclude with a call for further research: to curb the potential threats of preference manipulation, we need more measures that allow us to compare commercial as well as non-commercial systems. 1 Introduction What role do recommender systems play in shaping our behaviour? On the one hand, they can seem like a mere convenience: they help us select which music to listen to (Millecamp et al., 2018) or which television show to watch (Bennett & Lanning, 2007). When we provide feedback by liking, rating, buying, or interacting with a product, we hope that our actions help the recommender system ”learn” our preferences (Knijnenburg et al., 2011). However, what if the recommender systems do not simply learn our preferences but shape them? By providing recommendations, the recommender systems can influence the products we engage with, which can shape our preferences (Jiang et al., 2019). This creates a feedback loop that can degenerate into so-called filter bubbles and echo chambers (Jiang et al., 2019). The drivers of this could be commercial. The companies behind the recommender systems might have incentives for shaping our behaviour to increase profitability. This is what Zuboff terms the prediction imperative in her exposition of Surveillance Capitalism (Zuboff, 2019). The prediction imperative states that to secure revenue streams Big Tech companies must become better at predicting the needs of their users. The first step of this is creating better predictive algorithms i.e. going from simple heuristics to sophisticated machine learning (Raschka et al., 2020). However, as competition increase, the surest way to predict behaviour is to shape it (Zuboff, 2019). By shaping behaviour, companies increase predictability at the cost of the users’ autonomy (Varshney, 2020). While it may be good business, changing preferences could plausibly count as manipulation. Apart from harming the autonomy of the users (Varshney, 2020), this could have legal implications under the EU AI Act (Franklin et al., 2022; Kop, 2021). Take the case of Amazon. In 1998, Amazon introduced item-based collaborative filtering (Linden et al., 2003) - a simple and scalable recommender model that allows them to recommend similar items. Since then their models have evolved to create more personalised features using machine learning on sophisticated features (Smith & Linden, 2017). The effects of this have been more accurate recommendations and - crucially - higher sales (Wells et al., 2018). The prediction imperative posits that the evolution of Amazon recommender systems should have made it more difficult for users to change preferences to make them more predictable and profitable. They might also steer users towards specific categories that are relatively more profitable (Zhu & Liu, 2018). To make such a claim it is essential to have methods for empirically analysing potential manipulation. Fortunately, Rakova and Chowdhury (2019) provide such a measure: Barrier-to-Exit. Barrier-to-Exit provides a measure for how much effort a user must exert to show that they have changed their preferences within a given category. It is built on a theoretical foundation of Selbst et al. (2019)’s work on fairness traps as well as systems control theory as applied to recommender systems (Jiang et al., 2019). The authors posit that recommender systems with a higher Barrier-to-Exit make it harder to change preferences. Methods are ineffective without relevant data to apply them to. This may seem like an insurmountable task: Amazon’s recommender system is a complex model that builds on a myriad of advanced features including browsing activity, item features, and buying activity (Smith & Linden, 2017). No one but Amazon has access to this data - and they are unlikely to share it (Burrell, 2016). We can get around this to some extent by relying on proxies. Specifically, we can use publicly available ratings as a proxy for user input. This has the advantage of being accessible through public datasets (Ni et al., 2019). The disadvantage is that we only have access to a (biased) fraction of the data going into the recommender system. This paper aims to investigate whether Amazon’s recommender system has made it more difficult to change preferences over time. To focus the scope, we will only investigate book recommendations, as books were Amazon’s first product (Smith & Linden, 2017). This leads us to the following research question: • RQ: Has the Amazon Book Recommender System made it more difficult to change preferences over time? We take several steps to answer this research question. First, we will formalise Barrier-to-Exit in the context of Amazon book recommendations. We will discuss the caveats of the technique and how it relates to preference change. Then we will use a large dataset of Amazon book recommendations (Ni et al., 2019) to calculate the Barrier-to-Exit for users who have changed their preferences. We will then analyse the change in Barrier-to-Exit over time using a linear mixed-effects model. Finally, we will discuss the validity and implications of these results. This paper has two main contributions to the literature: 1) it provides a novel analysis of trends in preference manipulation in a commercial rather than academic setting. 2) it assesses the portability of Barrier-to-Exit as a measure for real-world datasets. This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license. Authors: (1) Jonathan H. Rystrøm. Authors: Authors: (1) Jonathan H. Rystrøm. Table of Links Abstract and Introduction Abstract and Introduction Previous Literature Previous Literature Methods and Data Methods and Data Results Results Discussions Discussions Conclusions and References Conclusions and References A. Validation of Assumptions A. Validation of Assumptions B. Other Models B. Other Models C. Pre-processing steps C. Pre-processing steps Abstract Recommender systems can be a helpful tool for recommending content but they can also influence users’ preferences. One sociological theory for this influence is that companies are incentivised to influence preferences to make users easier to predict and thus more profitable by making it harder to change preferences. This paper seeks to test that theory empirically. We use Barrier-to-Exit, a metric for how difficult it is for users to change preferences, to analyse a large dataset of Amazon Book Ratings from 1998 to 2018. We focus the analysis on users who have changed preferences according to Barrier-to-Exit. To assess the growth of Barrier-to-Exit over time, we developed a linear mixed-effects model with crossed random effects for users and categories. Our findings indicate a highly significant growth of Barrier-to-Exit over time, suggesting that it has become more difficult for the analysed subset of users to change their preferences. However, it should be noted that these findings come with several statistical and methodological caveats including sample bias and construct validity issues related to Barrier-to-Exit. We discuss the strengths and limitations of our approach and its implications. Additionally, we highlight the challenges of creating context-sensitive and generalisable measures for complex socio-technical concepts such as ”difficulty to change preferences.” We conclude with a call for further research: to curb the potential threats of preference manipulation, we need more measures that allow us to compare commercial as well as non-commercial systems. 1 Introduction What role do recommender systems play in shaping our behaviour? On the one hand, they can seem like a mere convenience: they help us select which music to listen to (Millecamp et al., 2018) or which television show to watch (Bennett & Lanning, 2007). When we provide feedback by liking, rating, buying, or interacting with a product, we hope that our actions help the recommender system ”learn” our preferences (Knijnenburg et al., 2011). However, what if the recommender systems do not simply learn our preferences but shape them? By providing recommendations, the recommender systems can influence the products we engage with, which can shape our preferences (Jiang et al., 2019). This creates a feedback loop that can degenerate into so-called filter bubbles and echo chambers (Jiang et al., 2019). The drivers of this could be commercial. The companies behind the recommender systems might have incentives for shaping our behaviour to increase profitability. This is what Zuboff terms the prediction imperative in her exposition of Surveillance Capitalism (Zuboff, 2019). The prediction imperative states that to secure revenue streams Big Tech companies must become better at predicting the needs of their users. The first step of this is creating better predictive algorithms i.e. going from simple heuristics to sophisticated machine learning (Raschka et al., 2020). However, as competition increase, the surest way to predict behaviour is to shape it (Zuboff, 2019). By shaping behaviour, companies increase predictability at the cost of the users’ autonomy (Varshney, 2020). While it may be good business, changing preferences could plausibly count as manipulation. Apart from harming the autonomy of the users (Varshney, 2020), this could have legal implications under the EU AI Act (Franklin et al., 2022; Kop, 2021). Take the case of Amazon. In 1998, Amazon introduced item-based collaborative filtering (Linden et al., 2003) - a simple and scalable recommender model that allows them to recommend similar items. Since then their models have evolved to create more personalised features using machine learning on sophisticated features (Smith & Linden, 2017). The effects of this have been more accurate recommendations and - crucially - higher sales (Wells et al., 2018). The prediction imperative posits that the evolution of Amazon recommender systems should have made it more difficult for users to change preferences to make them more predictable and profitable. They might also steer users towards specific categories that are relatively more profitable (Zhu & Liu, 2018). To make such a claim it is essential to have methods for empirically analysing potential manipulation. Fortunately, Rakova and Chowdhury (2019) provide such a measure: Barrier-to-Exit. Barrier-to-Exit provides a measure for how much effort a user must exert to show that they have changed their preferences within a given category. It is built on a theoretical foundation of Selbst et al. (2019)’s work on fairness traps as well as systems control theory as applied to recommender systems (Jiang et al., 2019). The authors posit that recommender systems with a higher Barrier-to-Exit make it harder to change preferences. Methods are ineffective without relevant data to apply them to. This may seem like an insurmountable task: Amazon’s recommender system is a complex model that builds on a myriad of advanced features including browsing activity, item features, and buying activity (Smith & Linden, 2017). No one but Amazon has access to this data - and they are unlikely to share it (Burrell, 2016). We can get around this to some extent by relying on proxies. Specifically, we can use publicly available ratings as a proxy for user input. This has the advantage of being accessible through public datasets (Ni et al., 2019). The disadvantage is that we only have access to a (biased) fraction of the data going into the recommender system. This paper aims to investigate whether Amazon’s recommender system has made it more difficult to change preferences over time. To focus the scope, we will only investigate book recommendations, as books were Amazon’s first product (Smith & Linden, 2017). This leads us to the following research question: • RQ : Has the Amazon Book Recommender System made it more difficult to change preferences over time? RQ We take several steps to answer this research question. First, we will formalise Barrier-to-Exit in the context of Amazon book recommendations. We will discuss the caveats of the technique and how it relates to preference change. Then we will use a large dataset of Amazon book recommendations (Ni et al., 2019) to calculate the Barrier-to-Exit for users who have changed their preferences. We will then analyse the change in Barrier-to-Exit over time using a linear mixed-effects model. Finally, we will discuss the validity and implications of these results. This paper has two main contributions to the literature: 1) it provides a novel analysis of trends in preference manipulation in a commercial rather than academic setting. 2) it assesses the portability of Barrier-to-Exit as a measure for real-world datasets. This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license. This paper is available on arxiv under CC 4.0 license. available on arxiv

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