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With Ripple’s fully diluted value at $343 billion, it’s the 10th most valuable company in the U.S., ahead of Bitcoin (not to mention P&Gamble and …). How can that be? I’m reminded of one of the classic lines in movie history, the reason Captain Louis Renault gave Humphrey Bogart (Rick) for shutting Rick’s Cafe in Casablanca: 1. The Difference Between Investing & Gambling Is …. According to Investopedia, Investing is “The act of committing money to an endeavor with the expectation of obtaining an additional income or profit.” Warren Buffett defines investing as “… the process of laying out money now to receive more money in the future.” Interestingly, you can use those same definitions for gambling. So what’s the difference between the two? I believe the fundamental difference between the two is that gambling involves random chance while investing requires RESEARCH. That’s what I used to do for a living. I was a research analyst at Goldman Sachs. It was hard work. But I loved it because I love doing learning. But many “investors” think investing in the stock market, or Crypto, is like walking into a casino. They throw money at a stock or a token, or a basket of stocks or tokens, based on a rumor, tip, or something they believe. They do little research (if any) into each token. Traditionally, it goes great (see internet investing 1996–1999) until it doesn’t (see internet investing 2000) There are two reasonable explanations for Ripple being worth more than many of the greatest company’s on the planet. The first is that it’s different this time. Could be. But if you read “ ”, you probably think it’s reason #2. That people are just simply gambling, without care or concern for things as mundane as valuation. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly 2. Crypto Has Evolved In To The First Global Casino For the first time ever, anyone anywhere, can take money, and buy some tokens. If they were doing research, I’d call that investing. But they’re not doing research. Therefor, all they’re doing is gambling. Crypto has evolved in to the world’s first global casino. And the reality is, there’s NOTHING shocking about it. Humans love gambling. I have a word for the tendency of markets to become bubbles, crash, and become bubbles again. I call that CAPITALISM. That’s what we do (see U.S. stock market circa 1927, 1937, 1973, 1987, 1999, 2008). It’s not just Americans. When the great Japanese land bubble peaked in 1989, at $1 million/square meter, the Imperial Palace in Tokyo became worth more than all of the real estate in California combined. The Japanese weren’t investing in real estate, they were gambling in real estate. For ten years (1980–1989) it worked, until it din’t. By the time that bear market ended, in 2005, prices were down 99%, right back to where they started 25 tears earlier. To put things in to perspective, all of crypto is worth about $830 billion. That’s about 1% of the total global equities market, which is over . $80 trillion 3. The Crypto Gambling Going On Today Will Be An Asterik When The History Of The Greatest Wealth Creation Period Ever Is Written In 20 Years In an earlier post I titled “ ”, I put this Crypto moment in to perspective relative to where I believe Crypto is going to be in 20 years. This bubble, and eventual crash, will just be a blip when viewed in the context of the massive wealth creation to come from Crypto. The Crypto Bubble Isn’t A Bubble It’s A… As I’ve written previously, : is part of the reason we get bubbles. Amara’s Law We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run, Here’s Amara’s law in graphical form: So people are just over excited about the incredible future around the corner. I’m excited as well. I’m still investing in Crypto. I’m not trying to time the market. I’m playing a long game. That’s how you win. Come To or start one in your city by emailing CryptoMondays@CryptoOracle.io. Crypto Mondays NYC If you enjoyed this post (or quite honestly, even if you didn’t) please “Clap” for the story below, that’s how I derive my self worth

Three Thoughts Relevant To Crypto (A.K.A. The World’s First Global Casino)

Heresies; or The Things that God Is Not

THE WEEKS WEAR BY

Over the past few weeks, if you're in the digital asset space you've probably been questioned over the holidays. "Am I too late? What should I buy? Are we going up or down?" I'm writing this in an effort to give my opinion, which in no way constitutes financial advice. In an effort to save a few long conversations here's my take on where we're at, and where we could be heading. Crypto users are growing at a rate of . We're currently sitting at over and a $2.37 trillion of all digital assets. If the growth rate stays concurrent with the last 4 years, we will hit well over 1 billion users by 2024. 113% per year 300 Million global users market cap In a recent interview, Global Macro Investor said, "If we look at how fast tokenization is eating into other asset classes, coupled, with adoption rates we can estimate future global market cap. The reality is all other asset classes: global equities, global bonds, global real estate, are all between 250-350 Trillion, with the derivative markets being 1 quadrillion, and FX markets over a Quadrillion." Raoul Pal Raoul went onto say " If crypto mirrors other asset classes and continues adoption rates it should hit $250trillion in the next 10 years, which sounds about right, we potentially have a 100x from here ". With the above being stated I absolutely think we're early. Digital asset projects will continually eat away at legacy middleman businesses and replace them with protocols that will do the work 99% cheaper. I think people are starting to slowly realize there's much more going on in our space than people trying to be money. Tokenization will dramatically eat into traditional equities. Tokenization = inclusiveness The beautiful thing about digital assets is everyone can participate. In traditional early investment opportunities, you have to be an accredited investor to participate. The Government protects you from investing in early-stage businesses while encouraging you to take on debt in other aspects of life. All this oversight while you can fly to Vegas and gamble your life savings away at free will. Some of the best-performing real estate opportunities are well out of the reach of everyday individuals. With tokenization of real estate, it levels the playing field. Now someone making minimum wage can get the same percentage exposure as ultra-high-net-worth investors on A class opportunities. With this concept alone I see tokenization of real-world assets ramping up. Metcalfe's Law Metcalfe's Law” says that a network's value is proportional to the square of the number of nodes in the network. The end nodes can be computers, servers, and simply users. 6 Nonmarket correlated drivers to new users and nodes (taking hype cycle and pure speculation out of the mix) are bringing in users at astonishing rates. Even who in 2019 was a famous crypto protractor now has major Defi exposure. Even investing in a Canadian Company Fi, which specializes in bringing Defi to the masses, including a DeFi index, even institutions are getting exposure to DeFi yields Defi Protocols Kevin O'Leary Wonder is the act of locking up crypto holdings in order to obtain rewards or interest. The network outs the assets to work on a consensus mechanism called proof of stake, which out simply verify transactions on chain. Users can earn 2%-30% in rewards depending on the asset. Staking - Exchanges like are launching debit cards where the underlying asset is USDC. Now users can deposit Fiat into voyager and convert to USDC in one click. This creates a Debit card that earns like crypto and spends like cash. Imagine having a bank account earning 9% interest. The Voyager debit card also boasts crypto back features with the debit card. Crypto Banking/Debit cards Voyager is a decentralized version of the Internet where users have control over their data. The third version of the internet will have more transparency and boast massive content that will be accessible to all. In current web 2 Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft and google control a large portion of the world's data. Many issues have been raised about privacy on web 2 as users in my opinion have little if any.  Additionally, Web 3.0 is believed to be more user-specific, which will ensure data security and privacy while lessening the risk of Internet hacking. Many tokenized assets and protocols are planning on migrating or developing on Web3. Web 3.0 is a virtual reality space in which users can interact with a computer-generated environment and other users. Daily Mobile phone use is a mind-bending 3:54 hours per day, and this time has gone up year on year since 2014. Younger users would rather have a virtual world in which they can interact, buy, sell, trade, game, and experience real-world events in the metaverse. Even Facebook changed their Name to "META". And who's better at front running technological advances than good old Facebook? Metaverse is just the beginning for projects like . Axie has attracted more than 2 million daily users worldwide. In developing nations, many gamers can earn more in a month than they could in a year working jobs in that country. Axie says over 25% of its users were completely unbanked making the Axie wallet is their first exposure to financial services. Another interesting stat over never had any exposure to crypto prior to gaming on Axie. Another sign these non-correlated use-centric platforms will drive network effect, and Metcalfe's law. Play to earn Gaming Axie infinity 50% of Axie's users Amara's Law Amara's Law states: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short term, and underestimate it in the long run You can look at comparable new technologies such as: AI, GPS, Autonomous driving, when the consensus seems to determine progress has slowed, we're typically at the "trough of disillusionment" where development catches up as expectations fade. I truly believe we're at that place in the growth curve for digital assets. Long-term use case-centric use cases are gravely underestimated. With this sentence alone I think it's fairly easy to see I'm under the impression we're fairly early. But... if you're looking at anything from an investment standpoint the key question for yourself is "what is my time horizon"? No one can answer that but yourself. If you have a short time horizon digital assets may not be for you. Hope everyone has a great 2022 #WAGMI Sources : , , , , , Institutional Crypto Adoption: Three Factors to Watch | CoinShares Research Global Cryptocurrency Ownership Data 2021 - TripleA (triple-a.io) Metcalfe's law - Wikipedia What is staking? | Coinbase Believe Web 3.0 is the Next Internet Revolution? Watch These 3 Stocks (yahoo.com) Design Defined: Amara's Law in Product Design | Bresslergroup Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts, and Crypto Market Cap | CoinGecko How Axie Infinity is turning gaming on its head - The Verge Axie Infinity Nears 2M Daily Active Users as Creator Raises $152M Series B (coindesk.com)

Digital Assets: Are We Still Early?

At the kind invitation of Rob May and the Botchain team, I had the opportunity recently to keynote , an interesting conference in New York exploring the intersection of artificial intelligence and blockchain. Brains and Chains This is both an exciting and challenging topic, and the goal of my talk was to provide a broad introduction to kick things off, and frame the discussion for the rest of the day: discuss why the topic matters in the first place, and highlight the work of some interesting companies in the space. Below is the presentation, with some added commentary when relevant. Scroll to the very bottom for a SlideShare widget, if you’d like to flip through the slides. I’m coming at this topic from the perspective of a VC investor. My firm FirstMark has been active in both AI and crypto/blockchain. It’s certainly easy to poke gentle fun at the topic. AI (machine learning) and blockchain are both experimental and much buzzed about. AI reached a peak of hype in 2016–2017, blockchain in 2017–2018. Each trend individually could very well end up disappointing, and explorations at the intersection of both could prove fruitless. But if one looks at the history of computing, a massive new trend seems to appear every 10 or 15 years — silicon chips, the PC, the Internet, Web 2.0, etc. We are probably on the tail end of the current trend, which has been propelled by three concurrent phenomenons: social, mobile and cloud. Many of the giants we know today emerged from those. But the magnitude of those trends wasn’t always obvious, of course. Cloud computing, for example, seems obvious now, but if you rewind back to 2008, it was controversial, and called “marketing snake oil” by some. All in all, it took well over a decade to become the massive industry it is today. At first, new trends often seem both highly experimental and over-hyped, but over time they take hold, attracting ever more capital and talent, and gradually become the new paradigm. As per Amara’s law, the impact of new technology is often overestimated in the short run, and underestimated in the long run. The timing seems ripe for a new paradigm in technology to emerge. What will define and propel the the next big wave of computing innovation? There’s a rationale for making the argument that “AI, blockchain and the Internet of Things” is the new “Social, Mobile and Cloud”. Those trends are still very much emerging, but their potential impact is massive. What new giants will emerge from this paradigm? Just like social, mobile and cloud have fed off each other, those three trends have very interesting areas of overlap. I have discussed at least one example of , but there is a number of others. intersection between the Internet of Things and blockchain Today, I’ll focus on the intersection between AI and blockchain. One really interesting starting point is to observe that AI and blockchain are philosophically opposed in many ways, as nicely expressed by Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman in a recent conversation. For example, AI is very much centralized — within a handful of companies, primarily Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon (“GAFA”) and the large Chinese Internet companies, Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. While some of the AI research is open sourced via academic papers, those companies have been able to attract top AI talent around the world, and most importantly, they have access to unprecedented amounts of data to train their AI algorithms. Those datasets are a massive competitive advantage and are closed to the rest of the world. The centralization of AI opens the door to all sorts of abuse. Reports of government surveillance in China abound, powered by computer vision and face recognition technologies. But just over the last few months, stories started surfacing in the US that echoed some of the concerns about China, demonstrating that this is a global concern. Beyond political issues, centralized platforms tend compete with the ecosystem that emerged around them. Read Chris Dixon’s brilliant essay “ ”. Why Decentralization Matters Blockchain emerged as a powerful response to political and organizational problems, rather than purely technical ones. Since many of the issues we discussed are political and organizational in nature, can it be leveraged as a foil against the pitfalls of AI? Could blockchain also help create better AI? Pioneers in the field have been exploring various ideas, ranging from a decentralized way to create AI to networks of bots and fully autonomous organizations run by AI. We’ll chat today about how blockchain can help AI, but it is worth noting that there is a number of ways AI can help blockchain — another interesting discussion for another day. The first big idea is to create a decentralized marketplace that would help create better AI. The high level idea is as follows: All of us (individuals, institutions) would be financially incentivized to provide our personal and professional data. Knowing it would be kept completely secure and private (through decentralization and secure computing), we’d feel more comfortable sharing sensitive data (spending, health information). Over time, the marketplace(s) would accumulate a lot more data, and higher quality data, than what GAFA has access to. On top of the data, machine learning experts would be incentivized to compete and highest performing models would get disproportionally rewarded. To explore how to build such a decentralized marketplace, let’s chat about how to decentralize the three key building blocks of AI: data, models and computing power. At this stage of the presentation, we’ll start providing examples of companies doing exciting work at the intersection of AI and blockchain. The space is very vibrant and fast-moving, and this is not meant to be an exhaustive list of all great companies and projects, by any means. Also worth noting: many companies in the space have ambitious plans to build a lot of pieces of the ecosystem, and many sound a little bit the same. Most of those projects are pre-launch, so it will take time for the dust to settle and see who actually does what in earnest. Let’s start with data. One important point: if we’re going to use the blockchain to store massive amounts of data, it will need to become a much better database than it currently is. Here’s BigChainDB, out of Berlin, building a scalable blockchain database. The chart is interesting in that it shows that there is little overlap between what a distributed database offers and blockchain technology. As a result, building a true database-grade blockchain is a challenging project. To help share data, another key infrastructure component is a protocol. Ocean Protocol has been doing pioneering work in the field, and for anyone interested in digging in, it’s worth reading just about everything its founder has written on the general topic of AI and blockchain. Trent McConaghy Computable Labs is also working on building a data market protocol, and this great by its CEO Roger Chen is well worth a read as well. piece Sometimes you need to create your own data for purposes of AI training — either because you don’t have access to the right data set, or because the use case you are training the AI is too new that the data simply does not exist. Snips, out of Paris, is using crypto economics to incentivize a network of workers involved in synthetic data generation. Let’s talk about the second building block of AI: models. For a decentralized AI marketplace to work, you need to be able to guarantee that whatever data is provided by individuals and companies is processed in a completely private manner. Enter secure computing. A good example is the OpenMined project, which includes a key focus on private machine learning, leveraging various secure computing techniques, including federated learning (championed by Google) and differential privacy (championed by Apple). Let’s switch to the third building block of AI: computing power. A lot of the recent progress in AI has been facilitated by a massive ramp in computing power, that resulted both from better leveraging existing hardware, and also building new high performance hardware specifically for AI (Google TPUs, etc). DeepBrain Chain is an interesting project that aims to share idle computing resources around the world. Its general philosophy is comparable to other projects such as Coronai, Hadron, Golem, or Hypernet, but DeepBrain Chain is more specifically focused on the type of computing power (and related hardware) necessary for the specific requirements of AI. Putting it altogether, you can imagine a fully decentralized AI marketplace where people provide their data, developers compete to provide the best machine learning models, and the whole system works as a self-reinforcing network that attracts more and more participants and creates better and better AI. The secret weapon here is really crypto-economics: the ability to create a mini-economy where participants accrue and exchange value through tokens. Because they incentivize people to participate in the network early, tokens help solve the cold start problem which has plagued so many network-building efforts in the past. The chart showin the slide was taken form Fred Ehrsam’s excellent Medium post: . The post describes well how a decentralized AI marketplace could work. Blockchain-based Machine Learning Marketplaces Of course, the typical opportunities and challenges of any marketplace apply to this discussion. A decentralized marketplace may be a very novel way to create AI, but whatever comes out of it will still need to reach product / market fit and solve a real problem for it to be commercially successful. From that perspective, verticalized approaches (industrial, genomics, finance, etc.) are particularly interesting. Now let’s take this discussion one step further. Let’s assume that, in part through decentralized AI marketplaces, AI continues to flourish and accelerate. We would have the ability to create many, many types of AI for just about every task. What would this look like, and how would it work? Blockchain can provide an interesting organizational model to help the various AI bots cooperate in a transparent manner. is an example of a company working on building a network to build bots and have them cooperate in an organized manner. Fetch An example of bot cooperation could be a trip: you’d have one bot buy the flight ticket, and if there’s a delay, another bot could predict the likelihood of misconnection, suggest another route, and the first bot could change the reservation. All of this would happen automatically in real-time behind the scenes and completely eliminate friction for us humans. is another interesting example — a very ambitious, complex project with many moving pieces. As a showcase for how various AIs could cooperate to create a single brain, they’ve developed Sophia, a Hanlon robot that is powered by SingularityNET. The explainer is pretty wild (and reminiscent of WestWorld). SingularityNET video If we’re going to have a world where we rely on an army of bots to perform various tasks, there needs to be an infrastructure to keep things transparent and under control. This is the mission of , a new company created by Rob May, also CEO of Talla and organizer of this Brains and Chains conference. Botchain Taking things even further than bot cooperation, you could imagine how entire systems could run completely autonomously, powered by AI.This is the idea of a decentralized autonomous organization or “DAO”. Many people have heard of “the DAO”, the infamous investor-directed venture capital fund that got hacked in 2016. The idea of an “AI DAO” goes beyond what the DAO was, in that it could be a decentralized organization entirely run by machines, with no or limited human intervention. For example, fast forward way into the future and you could imagine a completely decentralized version of Uber with self-driving vehicles, run by AI. There would be one gigantic feedback loop where the system would constantly learn how to dispatch cars, transport people efficiently and handle all logistics, combining many skills and complexities into a self-running experience. One scary thought with this AI DAO concept is that it is unclear how you could stop such an organization if it is truly decentralized and autonomous, in the event it went haywire. It’s not like there’s one plug you can pull to turn off the computer… In conclusion, a lot of the above is fascinating, but highly experimental. Most of the projects I mentioned are pre-launch, and it’s unclear whether they will be able to pull off the ambitious goals they are pursuing. At the same time, a lot of foundational work is being done, and the combination of AI and blockchain could create very powerful technologies, at speeds that hard to fully predict. Some of those advances may create undesirable results, so now is certainly a good time to start thinking about the implications. THANK YOU: Kyle Samani of Multicoin Capital and Roger Chen of Computable Labs for providing feedback on this presentation; Rob May for inviting me to speak at the event; Demi Obayomi of FirstMark for the heavy lifting on the presentation. Here’s the SlideShare:

AI & Blockchain: An Introduction

“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” “We tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long term” — Roy Amara Prefer video? You might enjoy this! The hype cycle People are short-sighted, we don’t want to miss out on the action. We live in a world of instant gratification: sex, drugs, money, violence… And this fixation on the here and now creates issues in the future — hence every major hype cycle. The dotcom boom and bust was caused by short-sightedness. Individuals and investors saw companies rapidly receiving huge valuations, typically with no material value. And society tricked itself into believing it would always goes up. No one wanted to miss on tech stocks which seemed like a guaranteed lottery payout. But then the reckoning came. The markets dried and the worthless giants collapsed, crushing the economy. History repeats itself. Crypto is a massive bubble Things are eerily similar here. ( ) For a more detailed comparison, see post below _The blockchain build up is eerily reminiscent of the Dotcom era — inexperienced founders with only an idea raising…_hackernoon.com The Exponential Boom, Bust and Rebirth of the ICO Economy, ie Dotcom Bubble with Dumber Money It ALWAYS comes back to expectations. When expectations get out of whack with reality, problems occur. As this happens with larger and larger segments of the population, the risks increase. Source: Street Authority Today the Fed are worried about Bitcoin’s ability to crash the economy. With individuals borrowing money or mortgaging their homes to invest in futures, there is significant risk of a collapse. Unlike most assets and currencies, Bitcoin’s only value is its perceived value. There is no other use for this digital gold, try paying your bills with Bitcoin (especially outside of Silicon Valley) Bitcoin When people begin to realize this and markets correct, this could spell a run on the banks. And without a central regulating body to close exchanges or regulate pricing, the currency could see exponentially faster decline — destroying itself 24/7. The best application of blockchain is… Cryptocurrencies have been around for almost 10 years (since 2009). Where is the killer use case? To date there isn’t one, at least not yet. For to build value (beyond false ICO expectations), the industry needs to mature. We are still in the early days of crypto. It may still be several years before the first real applications and “value” exist. blockchain That is a long time to wait, and speculate… And the expectations are enormous — too optimistic to be honest. The world won’t be overthrown by blockchain in a year or two. Building the internet took time. Creating the building blocks of blockchain will be no different (although likely faster). Things take time. Plus people and society take time to adjust. And even after applications are built leveraging the blockchain, the entire UX/UI needs to be overhauled. Today buying and selling crypto is a pain. It is hard and few but the technologically advanced can manage. To make crypto mainstream, idiot-proof apps need to be built. Look at the tech giants of today. Usability is a top priority to reach broad swaths of the population. The same needs to be done for crypto. And it is in these picks and shovels businesses that true value is created ( ) for more on this concept, see post below _Get rich or die trying - that's a common mantra among entrepreneurs, gangsters and drug dealers. I know that was my…_medium.com Don't Mine for Gold When You Can Sell Shovels - Startup Grind - Medium The future of blockchain As of this point you probably think I am a crypto pessimist. You would be sadly mistaken. I am very very big on blockchain. The future potential to redefine the entire framework of society is ENORMOUS. But it is also the future. Don’t trick yourselves into believing the short term hype. We still have a ways to go. 11 Big, longterm blockchain predictions The areas that I am most excited about extend beyond the obvious financial implications (changing banking structure, reducing middlemen (peer-to-peer), decreasing money transfer fees etc…). 1. In the not so distant future, (probably personal identification as well). Your device will monitors your heart rate, possibly taking micro samples of blood to analyze DNA, ensuring it is in fact your money you are wearing. This provides added bio-security (likely soon to be a thing) and makes money much harder to misplace. humans will probably wear rings or bracelets containing their crypto cash . As governments see the writing on the wall, they will look to control cryptocurrencies or create their own to maintain financial hold over citizens. As money becomes decentralized, citizens will start to question and redefine the roles of government. In all likelihood, not all major countries will survive this switch and these changes will dramatically impact the power dynamics of nations moving forward.. 2. Some governments around the world will begin to embrace crypto while others will crackdown , creating a more transparent voting system. Many of these changes will come from progressive, successful blockchain companies working to overhaul the voting system. Hopefully these measures will help to reduce fraud and corruption in politics. 3. Blockchain will radically change voting and governance , where citizens can more easily pick up and leave in situations of strife. Theoretically this would reduce the sex slave trade worldwide as individuals seeking to escape war, violence and hardship could more easily move money and thus rely less on traffickers. 4. Freedom of money will create a more geographically free world These advantages would also apply to everyday citizens, creating a more free economy where money and talent flocked to the most advantageous regions (further blurring nation-state borders) The USA is the only 1st world country with tax slavery on its citizens, regardless of where they live. I foresee this combined with cryptocurrencies ability to move leading to both increased tax fraud and significantly elevated numbers of successful entrepreneurs giving up US citizenship in exchange for tax relief. NOTE: [LIKE THIS ARTICLE SO FAR? THEN YOU’LL REALLY WANT TO SIGN UP FOR MY NEWSLETTER — PLUS GET FREE BONUSES AND INVITES TO ROUNDTABLES!] OVER HERE 5. Blockchain simplifies recording keeping, . These implications have not been discussed previously (as far as I know), but the impact of reducing paperwork in government (which never ever happens), will likely creating significant stress on the system (without even taking into account AI). What do you do with worthless government workers? reducing the need for a large percentage of government employees whose sole job is to create and maintain paperwork Source: ValueWalk — Federal Paperwork Wastes Equivalent Of 13,000 Lifetimes per year Have you ever written a contract? It is complicated. Have you ever written and debugged code? That is even worse. And there are always loopholes. And while many crypto enthusiasts praise smart contracts as the end of paperwork, setting up smart contracts that completely cover all bases will likely be cost and time prohibitive. 6. Smart contracts are overrated. Clearly smart contracts will play large roles in very simple deals, but in more finessed areas, these will take much much longer than people anticipate and come with some gaping flaws (like the DAO heist). Inevitably, tokens as securities will become legalized and at that point stocks and ownership tokens will become synonymous. Quickly stocks will be tokenized (1:1) and added to exchanges, allowing for purchase of both ownership and utility tokens. The question, which will hold the real value? The answer lies in the type of company and inherent utility value. 7. What is the purpose of stocks when you have tokens? . By simplifying ownership records of building and land, companies and municipalities will drastically reduce amount of paperwork and time needed to complete transactions, making the market more liquid. 8. Blockchain will dramatically increase the liquidity, value and volatility of real estate And increasing in liquidity increases value. This will likely lead to major growth in the real estate sector (but also increased volatility, like the stock market). is currently working on the LTSE (long term stock exchange). Because public markets are so volatile and subject to short term pressures, companies and innovation suffer. Similar issues could occur in EVERY tokenized area of the economy unless proper regulations (or control mechanisms) are put in place. NOTE: Eric Ries US healthcare costs are expected to top $3.78T in 2018, reaching as high as 20% of GDP by 2020. While healthcare costs are rapidly ballooning out of control, blockchain potentially combats this. 9. The impact on healthcare may be largest of all. By drastically reducing paperwork (both in terms of cost and time), and better unifying health records, physicians and hospitals will be able to access (with the patient’s permission), entire health records to better analyze and treat patients. Combining this with AI/ML and wearable health trackers adds further valuable data, hopefully reversing the broken healthcare system, by focusing on prevention, rather than treating problems. If the US fails at this, this could legitimately bankrupt the country in the no so distant future. NOTE: Blockchain is as a store of information. When facial recognition combines with AI, autonomous vehicles and an ever increasing number of cameras, tracking people’s movements becomes pretty easy. 10. Crypto could lead to Minority Report and make privacy a thing of the past. Source: Alternative Movie Posters Under oppressive governments (or possibly any), this could become a situation where movements are constantly monitored, creating a digitized version of our lives where surveillance and possible criminal indictments could arise. Sounds like the first steps to Minority Report… . From social networks and communication platforms to marketplaces and content sites, startups with properly aligned token incentives can shortcut the creation of massive networks. Many of these will likely beat out of the Googles, Facebooks and Amazons of the world, given enough time. 11. Many new network effects companies will overthrow incumbents _From Facebook to Amazon, Uber to Airbnb and Tinder to bookkeeping, here is how smart startups acquire customers for…_hackernoon.com The 5 Types of Network Effects and How to Hack Them _As an angel investor, I am always looking for transformational businesses. And marketplaces are arguably one of the…_blog.markgrowth.com The Cult-Like Religion of ICOs and End of Amazon? Understand timeframes “Moving first is a tactic, not a goal….It’s much better to be a last mover.” — Peter Thiel On the surface this seems contrarian. When is being last better than being first? Steve Jobs understood this. Apple didn’t make the 1st MP3 player or the 1st smartphone. Yet in consumer tech, Apple is synonymous with both. That was no accident. This is Thiel’s theory in practice. Wealth accrues not to the first but to the monopoly, the company that captures the market, makes consumers forget all others and rides the waves as long as profits pour. They are the last. There is no successor coming. That is where the money is made and that is where startups and businesses should strive to be. So let me ask you, are today’s ICOs and crypto companies really the ones that build value and win in the long run? If not, are you are betting on the wrong horse. Don’t let FOMO (fear of missing out) force you into bad decisions. Here’s a secret. Of all the cryptocurrencies today, which is most critical to the entire ecosystem? Obviously . If I wanted to bet on crypto, that’s my pick. ethereum Thoughts?… We recently had an incredible roundtable with of and , Andy Bromberg of , and on . Check out the recording below. Joey Krug Augur Pantera Capital CoinList Gil Penchina Lou Kerner the State and Future of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Learned something? Click the 👏 to say “thanks!” and help others find this article. Donations and support are always greatly appreciated BTC Wallet: 14qFdA5A6BVY8oxbWDBjUmXdTkpujbCAKr ETH Wallet: 0x36d558c84204f3902F0C5C02afBEfd649CD3E23E LTC Wallet: LNyMG1Kf6UhD5GircU8iD6uQeo5FFJCiiK

Why Crypto is HUGELY Overrated, and Underrated

It was an epic week in cryptoland, highlighted by the and the , a decentralized crypto exchange. The total market cap of cryptocurrency tracked by stands at $145B, up $5B for the week (thanks Bitcoin Cash). All great stuff, but noise in the long run. rapid rise in the value of Bitcoin Cash innovative and successful ICO of Ox CoinMarketCap What’s important to the long run success of cryptocurrency is that infrastructure is being built to enable scaling, continued innovation, a clear regulatory framework, and institutional adoption. With that in mind, here are. 6 cryptocurrency thoughts to ponder on your way down the rabbit hole: 1. Valuing Cryptocurrency Remains The $145 Billion Question For the most part, the best writing analyzing ICOs focuses on the technical aspects, on the blog of crypto expert and Cornell Prof . The piece was written by a Professor, a post doc, a Phd student, and three others associated with Cornell. like this piece Emin Gün Sirer The art of valuing cryptocurrency is still in it’s infancy. As I’ve written, I’ve seen on how to value the “utility” of cryptocurrencies is ’s . the best piece cburniske The Crypto J-Curve The most thoughtful work I’ve seen in terms of valuing Bitcoin as a store of value/in comparison to gold is by of Fundstrat. His views are outlined in in Barron’s. Last Friday, Lee by mid ’18. Thomas Lee this piece recent piece predicted Bitcoin will hit $,6000 Another way to value cryptocurrencies is to compare them to relevant publicly traded entities. This is known as in traditional equity analysis. For example, here’s one way to value , which is the 9th most valuable coin at a $1.95B market cap. NEO is up 27,000% to date in 2017 ($10,000 is now $2.7 million). NEO is widely considered to be the “ ”, enabling smart contracts and poised to be the go-to platform for what for the expected onslaught of Chinese ICOs. So what should the Chinese Ethereum be worth in relation to Ethereum? Using comparable analysis I started by looking at what the Chinese Google (Baidu) trades at in relation to Google: Comparable Company Analysis NEO Ethereum of China Market Caps are In Billions I then used that multiple to see where NEO would trade at if it traded at the same multiple to Ethereum as Baidu trades at to Google: Market Caps are in Billions This analysis indicates that NEO has 70% upside levels if it trades at the same comparable market cap multiple to Ethereum as Baidu trades at in comparison to Google. This simplistic analysis has multiple potential flaws (e.g. is Ethereum fairly valued, is Baidu a good comp to Google, is NEO a good comp to Ethereum). However, the point I’m making, and will continue to make, is that real institutional adoption of cryptocurrency requires the industry to develop generally accepted ways to value cryptocurrency. That’s what I’ll continue to research and write about. 2. Are We In a Cryptocurrency Bubble? Amara’s Law & Carlota Perez Provide Historical Context was the President of the Palo Alto based think tank when he coined Amara’s law: “ That’s because humans think in a linear fashion, while technology develops in an “S Curve”: Roy Amara Institute For The Future We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run”. Cryptocurrency is in the early days of the S Curve, where people overestimate how quickly new technologies will get adopted. That’s when bubbles occur. This has also been called as the “ ”. hype cycle Lots of great books have been written on bubbles including Carlota Perez’s “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages”. Read to see the future of cryptocurrency (and all great technological innovation). this Foreign Affairs review So unless “ ”, which it NEVER is, then we’re in a bubble. But in 10 years this will all be noise, and people in it for the long run, will reap the rewards of being early. this time it’s different 3 . Native Protocol Funds Are The Newest Addition To The Cryptocurrency Funding Stack Given the massive disruptive potential of cryptocurrency and decentralized networks, the funding stack is increasingly robust: We can add another source to the chart above, Protocol Funds. My favorite reads this past week was ’s “ ”, which highlighted the emergence of these funds and the role they’ll play in the ecosystem. Yannick Roux The Rise of Native Protocol Funds In their August update, Tezos announced “… a commitment of $50 million in VC funding to companies looking to build on the Tezos platform. This capital will be partially deployed through VC partners to be announced, as well as through a direct venture arm.” In other words, some money raised in the Tezos ICO will be used to fund companies building tech to enhance or leverage the Tezos platform. In the video below, Blockstack announces the $25 million Blockstack Signature Fund, outlining it’s plans to work with traditional VCs to fund developers building decentralized apps on top of Blockstack. Access to capital is always a critical factor in the success of companies. In the world of native protocols, access to capital for developers working with a given protocol, will also be critical to the success of protocols. Hence the reason for these protocol funds, with more protocol funds sure to follow. 4. ICO Advisors Are Diverse, Other Than…. Most companies that have ICO’d have small employee bases that are supplemented by Advisors providing valuable technical or business insight. As ICOs are increasingly been driven by PR, having well known Advisors “ ”. So I analyzed the composition of Advisors at 10 successful ICOs, and found there was tremendous diversity across the advisor base, other than gender. Now, my sampling wasn’t scientific, but one female out 46 Advisors highlights the industry has a gender issue to address. Here’s how the 46 Advisors broke out: ..is becoming a must have Advisors were geographically decentralized. In addition to the U.S. and China, countries represented also included Canada, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Russia, Israel, Spain, and Germany. Finally, what was most notable, was few of the Advisors appeared to be window dressing for PR purposes. Almost all advisors had deep industry and/or technical expertise. 5. The State Of NY Is Losing To Zug In Crypto Leadership For a cryptocurrency enthusiast living in New York, few things are as lame as going to a crypto related website (e.g. Shapeshift, Kracken, Poloniex..) and reading “… can be used everywhere except in New York and North Korea.” WTF. The Google result for CryptoValley yields: about a recent three day field trip to Zug thrown by the crypto community there. Singapore is also a major hub, and Gibraltar appears to be gaining as a destination. But NY should be Crypto Valley. I’ve heard great things Now the U.S. as a whole, with it’s uncertain regulator environment, is causing some ICOs to . However, the regulators in New York are doing even more damage to the industry in the state. On August 8, 2015, New York started requiring a to engage in cryptocurrency activities. Only three companies have been granted a license (Coinbase, Ripple and Circle) even though more than 20 have applied. The majority of crypto companies/ICOs, are just steering clear of NY, avoiding the estimated $100,000 in licensing costs and avoiding the “ ” intrusion of privacy the law demands. prevent participation from U.S. investors BitLicense reckless and ethically impermissible If things don’t start improving in NY, I look forward to Zug in ’18. 6.Tweet Storm of The Week Read by . It does a great job of putting this crypto moment in to context on many levels (including comparing NEO to Ethereum) the 50+ tweet storm Sizhao Yang to learn about the Valuing Cryptocurrency Conference Call on September 7th Click here 0.00000001 Bitcoin If you got at least worth of value from this post or enjoyed reading, go ahead and “Clap” below .

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