ChatGPT's Macroeconomic Predictions

Table of Links

Abstract and 1 Introduction

2 Direct vs Narrative Prediction

3 Prompting Methodology and Data Collection

4 Results

4.1 Establishing the Training Data Limit with Falsifications

4.2 Results of the 2022 Academy Awards Forecasts

5 Predicting Macroeconomic Variables

5.1 Predicting Inflation with an Economics Professor

5.2 Predicting Inflation with a Jerome Powell, Fed Chair

5.3 Predicting Inflation with Jerome Powell and Prompting with Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

5.4 Predicting Unemployment with an Economics Professor

6 Conjecture on ChatGPT-4’s Predictive Abilities in Narrative Form

7 Conclusion and Acknowledgments

Appendix

A. Distribution of Predicted Academy Award Winners

B. Distribution of Predicted Macroeconomic Variables

References

B. Distribution of Predicted Macroeconomic Variables

This section contains figures that demonstrate the distribution of predicted macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and unemployment, using the four prompting styles. The results highlight the enhanced predictive power of GPT-4 when using the future narrative approach.

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