When the price spikes, the Bitcoin Bros start talking about million-dollar Bitcoins being a sure thing. It makes any price short of one million dollars seem like a bargain. To be frank, I think this is wishful thinking. We are quite a number of years away from million-dollar Bitcoins. I predict Bitcoin will NEVER get to one million dollars.
I will not justify the position with any charts or statistical analysis. There is no reason to do so. Common sense tells us as Bitcoin begins to approach even half a million dollars, there will be enormous stresses in the global financial systems. The United States financial system has the most to lose if there is serious disruption. The status quo will fight to maintain its place with the dollar retaining reserve currency status.
Those that support the status quo are very powerful. There will be a titanic battle between governments, bankers and, private corporations. This is a core theme to the Rollerball Cryptocurrency Hypothesis, which I first debuted right here on HackerNoon.
Honestly, the term "cryptocurrency investing" is really an oxymoron in my opinion. It may seem hypocritical for the author of Cryptocurrency Investing in the Age of Dollar Chaos to believe this. There is a whole chapter in the above book with that very title, "Cryptocurrency Investing is an Oxymoron". That is because it IS gambling. There is too much uncertainty about the future. It is a "wise" kind of gambling when things are in such a flux, but gambling.
Full Disclosure: I am a long-term HODL'er of Bitcoin. That does not mean I believe in any of these fantastical predictions about million-dollar Bitcoins. I can imagine a whole bunch of other things which might happen before Bitcoin reaches one million dollars.
The United States government threatening to make Bitcoin illegal would be right at the top of the list. Remember it will not matter how stupid this might be. The track record of America’s politicians in the 21st century guarantees some stupidity on this front. Once the threat is made, it can become a terrible game of chicken.
Once the game of chicken starts, “responsible” (rich) people will get involved. There is a lot to be lost if the game of chicken is allowed to play out. A lot of wealth could be evaporated. Money will get together to negotiate something. Eventually, a deal is cut.
The price of Bitcoin will be frozen for some amount of time. Over that time, private ownership of Bitcoin will become illegal. However, corporations will be allowed to retain their stakes if they are significant enough. Ergo, anyone with less than ONE Bitcoin will be considered insignificant and be forced to cash out. Banks will be the immediate beneficiaries paying out dollars to all the fractional Bitcoin holders to accumulate a store of the new currency.
Next, a change to the protocol will be made to double the number of Bitcoins in existence. Oh yeah, this is completely possible. In my opinion, it is probable or at least even money. The fact the Bitcoin cap could be lifted is another idea first floated here on hackernoon! This is the place where new ideas get vetted after all.
In my hypothetical scenario, the new "special" Bitcoins will be immediately mined. The newly minted Bitcoins will be sent to a hardware wallet at Fort Knox. If you think this scenario is crazy. I completely agree. It is crazy, but it did happen once before. FDR took over the nation's gold supply. Over the course of a year was able to similarly rehydrate American banking health.
The cap on Bitcoin is not immutable. Bitcoin is code. Code changes. Code MUST change to evolve in the 21st century. The beauty of Bitcoin is such a change would require an enormous amount of transparency. There would also need to be cooperation from the mining community, but that could be possible. Imagine if the mining community was enriched through this new protocol too, perhaps allowing for some small amount of growth forevermore.
These things are possible. This is why cryptocurrency investing is gambling. It is very hard to predict how this is all going to work out. Nonetheless, it seems like wise gambling to spread some money around right now. There is chaos on the horizon.
It might even be good if the aforementioned deal happened. I think that as Bitcoin approaches a quarter of a million dollars, it will stretch the fabric of the current system to its breaking point. Some kind of deal might stabilize a country about to tear itself apart.
I do not know. I cannot predict the future. This scenario allows the United States government and banking systems to retain significant power in the new cryptocurrency world. It is a possible path to retain some reserve currency status.
Who knows what is going to happen. Do not let people tell you they know. Be realistic and be creative because the future is uncertain. In my book, Cryptocurrency Investing in the Age of Dollar Chaos I have put together some of the ideas which help me make decisions.
I am simply sharing the ideas. You will have to make your own decisions. Looking for a better reason to buy the book. Well, if you read the book all the way from beginning to end, you will have absorbed a lot of information. Also, you will understand you might not want to give a bunch of information to the crypto exchanges if you are just getting started.
What I’ve said above are ideas I wrote about previously on HackerNoon and these thoughts are articulated in more detail in my book: Cryptocurrency Investing in the Age of Dollar Chaos
It is not to avoid taxes. The IRS would not like that. It is simply a way to get involved. Put a little money in over time but stay away from the exchanges. Read it and you will understand.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article belong to the author alone. Please conduct your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.