The Bitcoin Bear Market Diaries are a series of interviews featuring various important voices and perspectives in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Each interviewee was carefully selected and asked the same group of questions. The main goal was to provide the world with a collection of commentary and opinions on the state of the current Bitcoin and crypto market. Some of the names you will recognize while others don’t wish for the limelight but have great insight and experience we all can learn from.
These interviews are raw and unfiltered with no agenda other than giving each individual their opportunity to speak their mind. If you like what you see, please share with your friends. If something offends you, you should probably X out and find another crypto fluff piece that gives you warm fuzzies.
Gabriel D Vine is a veteran Bitcoiner and has a ton of experience and insight into the space. Many know him from the podcast The Bitcoin News Show and his interesting conspiracy theories.
Gabriel D Vine
Sovereign Republic of Gabrielistan, population 1
How do people know you?
The Bitcoin News Show, World Crypto Network, Twitter @GabrielDVine
How long have you been into Bitcoin?
Coming up on 6 years!
Best Bitcoin experience?
Getting paid in Bitcoin by a client for a project.
Worst Bitcoin experience?
What do you think is Bitcoin’s biggest threat?
It’s hard to imagine any legitimate threat to Bitcoin at this point. I just can’t see anything stopping this juggernaut.
What are your thoughts on the various Bitcoin forks?
By definition they’re losers, doomed to irrelevance. If you can’t commit to consensus with the network, you’re destined to disintegrate in further forks until you’re worthless.
What are you optimistic about in this space?
Developers, layered protocols, privacy, sound money economics, and an adversarial “toxic” culture. This is the recipe for a software monetary revolution.
Biggest regret during the last Bull market?
Zero regrets. It’s all gravy, baby.
What have you learned during the current bear market?
I was right: Bitcoin is just as cyclical as it seemed.
What is the biggest fail you have seen during the bear market?
Nocoiners still nocoining.
What do you think helped trigger the current bear market?
I actually called a 2019 bear market, but it came rather early! This bear market is a natural consequence of the cycle of Bitcoin’s halvenings. When the supply rate constricts, the market overreacts bullishly, and when it stays constant longer, the market overreacts bearishly. See you in 2022/3, the next “bear market” with a 5- or 6-figure USD price baseline!
What kind of damage do you think latest price drop has done to buyer sentiment?
How do you feel about the current state and future of lightning network?
Incredibly optimistic. To think that the white paper and original intro video dropped only three years ago is mind-boggling. I’ve been spazzing about it since then and it’s only proving my predictions right. Currently the devs are solving very important backup and UX issues in order to make usage dependable and secure. That’s often the final step before wider mainstream adoption of technologies. It’s all just in time.
What are your thoughts on HODLing Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is vying to be a risk-free monetary asset as gold was 150 years ago, so saving in bitcoin becomes more logical with every reduction in price volatility. I wouldn’t save any other digital “asset”, that’s for sure.
What are you thoughts on alt-coins?
I do not believe any other digital commodity can become money other than the first done right, Bitcoin. So, any altcoin pretending to the mantle of currency is doomed permanently. However, it’s conceivable to me that utility tokens could gain usage in specific systems one day as digital version of today’s industrial commodities.
Do you hold any? If not, why?
Yes: I own a few satoshis’ worth of Maidsafecoin, which is a colored bitcoin that will one day be exchangeable for MaidSafe’s final launch of safecoin. MaidSafe, an encrypted data and networking layer that rides atop the internet, is an example of a system whose incentives might one day line up and become viable. The project has been going more than twelve years and has a very steep path ahead though, with a high likelihood of failure.
What kind of impact do you think the radical drop in alt-coins will have on their future?
Scammers gonna keep scamming. The next altcoin wave will make more millionaires and paupers who lost their life savings. At some point though, the scams will find it exponentially harder to find the next fool.
Thoughts on the notion of bitcoinization?
It’s just one of several possible scenarios. I have a feeling it will happen, but more slowly than many think.
What Bitcoin startups are you excited about?
CoinKite, Lightning Labs, Chaincode Labs, Blockstream, anything Nicholas Dorier or Francis Pouliot do, and so many more. It’s a Cambrian explosion of talent lately . . . so many amazing projects and businesses.
What “crypto influencers” do you think get it wrong and why?
I mute those suckers. In fact, I tend to mute anyone who uses the words “crypto” or “cryptocurrency”.
What “crypto influencer” do you think get it right and why?
The lastest push towards “bitcoin-only” is probably smart.
What’s it going to take for this bear market to turn around?
Miners to begin hoarding in expectation of the Spring 2020 halvening — my guess is 12 months beforehand
How bullish are you on Bitcoin despite this recent pullback?
I’m more bullish than ever. I keep raising my “top of the S-curve” price/value projection based on the tech advancement and lack of viable threats. Currently my prediction is $12,000,000 per bitcoin as soon as 2027.
Any tips you want to give to people new to Bitcoin?
Read a couple pages each on Wikipedia about 1. open source software, 2. digital cryptography, 3. Austrian economics, and 4. game theory, slowly and thoroughly so you really get the concepts. Only then can you begin to study Bitcoin with the requisite background knowledge in order to absorb deeply what it is.
Best tips for storing Bitcoin?
CoinKite’s ColdCard seems the best all-around option at this time.
Name some of your favorite information sources and/or podcasts in the space.
Pirate Beachbum, Ansel Lindner’s Bitcoin & Markets, Noded Podcast, Stephan Livera Podcast, World Crypto Network, Cryptocast Network
Any last words of wisdom?
Do your own research and make up your own mind. Everyone’s a scammer, everyone’s got an angle — but skin in the game still beats out conflict of interest. (h/t N.N. Taleb)