Timescales and confrontation with the data

Table of Links

Abstract and 1 Introduction

2. The threat posed by AI to all technical civilisations
3. Multiplanetary mitigating strategies and technology progression
4. Timescales and confrontation with the data
5. AI regulation
6. Conclusions, Declaration of competing interest, Acknowledgements, and References

4. Timescales and confrontation with the data

The scenario developed in section 3 suggests that almost all technical civilisations collapse on timescales set by their wide-spread adoption of AI. If AI-induced calamities need to occur before any civilisation achieves a multiplanetary capability, the longevity (L) of a communicating civilization as estimated by the Drake Equation [47], suggests a value of L ~ 100-200 years.

Let us consider the Drake Equation in more detail with a particular focus on the number (N) of radiocommunicating technical civilizations in the galaxy:

N = R∗ · fp · ne · fl · fi · ft · L (1)

where R∗ is the rate of star formation averaged over the lifetime of the Galaxy, fp is the fraction of stars with planetary systems, ne is the mean number of planets in each planetary system with environments favourable for life, fl is the fraction of such favourable planets on which life does in fact develop, fi is the fraction of such inhabited planets on which an intelligent civilisation arises, ft is the fraction of planets populated by an advanced technical civilisation and L is the lifetime of a radio communicating technical civilisation.

The first three astronomical terms of the equation are relatively well established (R∗ · fp · ne ~ 0.1 [48]) but the next three terms are not (fl · fi · fc). Astronomers often assume highly optimistic values for these terms ( fl · fi · fc ~ 0.1) while biologists suggest values many orders of magnitude smaller [49]. Even if we adopt the optimistic values, we derive for N:

N ~ 0.01 L (2)

For values of L ~ 100-200 years, we find N ~ 1-2.

A short communicative phase is therefore consistent with the null results from current SETI surveys. The window during which a technical civilisation can engage in detectable interstellar radio transmissions is extremely limited. In addition, if we assume the radio leakage emitted by emerging technical civilisations is like our own [50], the detection of other civilisations will be extremely challenging even for those located within our local stellar neighbourhood. The detection of more powerful directed signals (e.g. military radar) is of course possible across interstellar distances [51]. However, if only a handful of technical civilizations exist in the Milky Way at any given time, the probability of a detection occurring at cm-wavelengths within the very limited field of view offered by the current generation of large single-dishes and beamformed arrays is minimal. An “all-sky” capability or something approaching this would be required, and this surpasses the capabilities of current SETI radio instruments by a substantial margin. SETI researchers may need to consider the types of instruments required to conduct meaningful surveys – field of view is a metric which is often overlooked compared to raw sensitivity and total bandwidth. [52].

We also note that a post-biological technical civilisation would be especially well-adapted to space exploration [53, 54], with the potential to spread its presence throughout the Galaxy, even if the travel times are long and the interstellar environment harsh. Indeed, many predict that if we were to encounter extraterrestrial intelligence it would likely be in machine form [55]. Contemporary initiatives like the Breakthrough Starshot programme [56] are exploring technologies that would propel light-weight electronic systems toward the nearest star, Proxima Centauri. It’s conceivable that the first successful attempts to do this might be realised before the century’s close, and AI components could form an integral part of these miniature payloads. The absence of detectable signs of civilisations spanning stellar systems and entire galaxies (Kardashev Type II and Type III civilisations) further implies that such entities are either exceedingly rare or non-existent [8,9], reinforcing the notion of a "Great Filter" that halts the progress of a technical civilization within a few centuries of its emergence.